ORLANDO, Fla. — The U.S. economy is headed for a pasta-bowl shaped recession, and Florida can expect to face a shallow, yearlong recession of its own, Dr. Sean Snaith, national economist and director of UCF’s Institute for Economic Forecasting, says in a report released Monday.

However, Snaith added that, “There will be several benefits of an extended period of slower economic growth.”

Florida’s economy, as measured by Real Gross State Product, is expected to expand at an average annual rate of 1.4% from 2022-25. The state’s economy will not contract during the recession, but growth will slow to 0.5% in 2023 and 2024 before accelerating in 2025.

Payroll job growth will start to falter during the recession but not in all economic sectors, Snaith said. Job growth is expected to reach 3.9% in 2022, but the payroll employment will shrink in 2023 and 2024 before expanding 0.8% in 2025.

Real personal income growth will average -0.7% during 2022-25, Snaith said. Following a pullback in 2022, growth will average 1.7% through the end of 2025, reaching 2.5% in that year. Florida’s average growth will be 0.5% higher than the national rate over that four-year span.

Housing starts will pick up going forward, Snaith forecasts, but not fast enough to offset the large shortage of single-family housing in the short run.

According to the forecast, the appreciation of home values will largely vanish through 2025 as supply catches up with demand, which will ease because of rising mortgage rates, decreasing affordability and recession.

To learn more about the economic forecasts of all 22 of Florida’s metropolitan areas, go to the institute's website.