ORLANDO, Fla. — Colorado State University is forecasting a slightly below-average hurricane season in 2019 in a report released Thursday.
- Colorado State researchers issue annual hurricane season forecast
- Researchers say slightly-below-average season due to El Nino
- University underscores uncertainty of Atlantic forecast
Dr. Phil Klotzbach and his team at Colorado State are forecasting 13 named storms, which includes five hurricanes and two major hurricanes. The 30-year average in the Atlantic is 12 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.
The university is highlighting some key areas for their forecast, including an El Nino weather pattern that is currently ongoing. El Nino weather patterns have a tendency to suppress hurricane development in the Atlantic.
Klotzbach and his team also note slightly cooler waters in the tropical Atlantic and very cool waters in the far north Atlantic.
Colorado State is forecasting that El Nino conditions will continue, if not intensify, during the summer months.
The team is also forecasting a slightly lower chance of a major hurricane strike.
The university is forecasting a 48 percent chance of a major hurricane strike in the continental U.S. It's also forecasting a 28 percent chance of a strike for the U.S. East Coast including Florida. The long-term averages are 52 percent for a U.S. strike and a 31 percent strike for the East Coast and Florida.
One point strongly underscored by Klotzbach and his team is the high uncertainty this forecast holds. There remains uncertainty about any strengthening of El Nino and uncertainty about Atlantic water temperatures moving into the summer months.
Colorado State has been issuing seasonal forecasts for decades. The research unit was started by Dr. Bill Gray, who became a pioneer in seasonal hurricane forecasting.
Klotzbach and his team will announce an update to this forecast June 4.
Although the frequency of hurricanes is important to know, it only takes one hurricane to inflict significant damage. Now is the time to prepare for the 2019 hurricane season.
The Atlantic hurricane season begins on June 1.
