With rainfall amounts this year running around 9 to 10 inches behind, we need some good soaking rain days to help us out. But just how much do we count on tropical systems for our annual rainfall?

The short answer is not much, for two reasons:

  • The first is the fact that we can go years in between tropical systems here in Central Florida. Until 2004, Central Florida had not taken a direct hit from a hurricane in about 40 years.
  • Secondly, the rainfall totals from a tropical system vary widely within a small geographical area.

Take Hurricane Matthew for example. St. Augustine saw 13.6 inches of rain, while just a few miles south, Palm Coast only got 6.3 inches. We would welcome some heavy rain, but we just cannot rely on it from tropical systems.

What we have come to rely on most is our wet season. It usually begins in late May and lasts through the middle part of October.

The key players are the Bermuda high along with the high heat and humidity. The very things that make it somewhat uncomfortable outside during the summer keep our landscaping green and thriving.

The Bermuda high is named for the region it usually stays in for the summer months. It does wobble a bit and that is where meteorology comes in.

Depending on its location, we can predict where the west and east coast sea breezes will meet and spark up heavy showers and storms. The high heat over the land causes the air to rise and be replaced by the sea breeze on both coasts.

If the prevailing winds are out of the east, then the collision will be over the western half of the peninsula.

If they are south, the collision will be right down the middle of the state. It is these 40 to 50 percent chance of showers and storm days that amount to the majority of our annual rainfall.

So if your yard is brown and crunchy, do not despair. The wet season is finally here, but it will take a while to recover from the deficit we are in now. It just takes a little patience.