Just like Colorado State’s hurricane forecast, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is still calling for another above-normal number of storms this hurricane season.
However, the numbers have slightly decreased.
NOAA meteorologists now expect 14 to 20 named storms for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, one less storm than originally predicted.
They predict six to 10 of those will become hurricanes, including three to five major hurricanes, which are a Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
These numbers include the storms we've already seen this season.
La Niña condition will continue into the hurricane season. This ocean-atmosphere pattern favors tropical development in the Atlantic.
They also expect sea-surface temperatures in the Atlantic to stay above average, and NOAA says an enhanced west African monsoon would support more tropical waves that can become tropical storms or hurricanes.
Predictions of the season’s activity don’t necessarily mean anything about landfall or other coastal impacts. Individual storms make a difference in any particular place, regardless of how active a season is. Coastal residents should do what they can to be prepared every year.
Colorado State University’s outlook, also updated on Aug. 4, calls for 18 named storms, eight hurricanes, and four major hurricanes.
Last year's Atlantic hurricane season ended with 21 named storms, although nine of them were so-called "shorties," each lasting two days or less.