ORLANDO, Fla. — Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen has formed in the western Caribbean, with a forecast track toward the northern Gulf coast.
- Tropical storm could develop this weekend
- If it forms, it will be called Michael
- TRACKING THE TROPICS: Watches, warnings, forecasts, spaghetti models
The potential tropical cyclone was upgraded Saturday evening from an area of interest, with winds of 30 mph.
PTC Fourteen is located 175 south of Cozumel, Mexico.
The system is moving to the northwest at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure is 1006 mb.
The following advisories are in effect:
A Tropical Storm Warnings is in effect for:
* The Cuban Provinces of Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for:
* The Coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche
PTC Fourteen will likely become a tropical depression on Sunday, and a tropical storm Sunday night. When it becomes a tropical storm, its name will be ‘Michael’.
The complex will spread tropical storm force winds across western Cuba late Sunday into Monday. Rainfall of 3-7 inches is possible in western Cuba, with 2-4 inches of rainfall possible on the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize and Honduras.
PTC Fourteen is expected to lift northward into the Gulf of Mexico. From there, the system will likely make landfall along the northern Gulf coast as a strong tropical storm during the middle of next week.
It is possible the system could make landfall in the Florida Panhandle, but it is too early to determine an exact location and specific impacts.
There is high uncertainty about the possible intensity of the system, but it is likely that the complex will drag tropical moisture across Florida. This will increase the rain chances across the entire peninsula for the middle of the upcoming week.
Elsewhere in the tropics, Tropical Storm Leslie continue to spin in the open waters of the Atlantic.
Leslie continues to produce rip currents and large swells across the US east coast, especially toward New England and eastern Canada.
The storm is located about 680 miles northeast of Bermuda. This storm does not pose a threat to Florida or the U.S., but swells generated by Leslie continue to create life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. These large swells will continue this weekend.
Leslie sustained winds are at 60 mph and is now moving to the east at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure is 987 mb.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 290 miles from the center.
Leslie will continue to move to the east and then southeast over the next several days, taking Leslie across the central and eastern Atlantic. The system will remain a tropical storm for the next several days with little change in strength.
Hurricane season runs through Nov. 30.