When Donald John Trump exits the White House this week, he leaves in his wake many things, but perhaps none more serious for the health of the republic than the thoroughly conflicting judgments he inspires. 

Patriot. Cult leader. 

Liar. The only man brave enough to tell it like it is.

One of the greatest presidents. The only president impeached twice.

Over four years, a majority of Americans never approved of his job performance; yet from the time Trump descended the escalator at his namesake Manhattan tower in 2015, a sizable minority seemed to never find fault in his judgment. Their allegiance surpassed the adoration that political leaders sometimes animate, stress-testing our democracy as they entered the vortex of a new reality Trump tweeted.

His wasn’t just a presidency of tax cuts and ending foreign wars; it was what a scholar who has studied him calls it a “personalized presidency.” All presidents are also examined for their corresponding times in office; Trump’s moment seems uniquely meshed with the currents of cyberspace, infotainment and perceptions of a lost America in a globalized new order. 

His impact will long be debated; it’s already spawned far more than a cottage industry of books, though it’s far too soon for comprehensive histories to emerge. The bunting is draped over the Capitol’s West Lawn for his successor’s inauguration. Inside, the shattered windows of the Capitol and other damage from the insurrection in his name are not yet fully repaired. 

“Trump's legacy will be clearer down the road two years from now, four years from now, ten years from now,” the historian Eric Foner said in an interview with Spectrum News. 

And for many of us, the lives of presidents ultimately crystalize into just fleeting images: Franklin D. Roosevelt at the radio microphone; Jimmy Carter wearing a sweater to talk about energy; Ronald Reagan at the Berlin Wall; Bill Clinton walking with his family after admitting an affair.

What is the most lasting image of Trump? Perhaps, it’s one from these final days, without Trump even in the frame: tens of thousands of soldiers patrolling Washington D.C. after the Capitol was invaded for the first time since the British set fire to Washington in 1814. More than two centuries later, Americans are on sentry duty for more disruptions to democracy from within, in the name of the 45th President. 

Yet with Trump’s travel to his Florida estate hours away, it’s appropriate to now take a deeper stock of just some of what happened at his hand – or at least during the era that will bear his name.

The Beginning

FILE - In this Sunday, June 16, 2015, file photo, Donald Trump, accompanied by his wife Melania Trump, is applauded by his daughter Ivanka Trump, right as he's introduced before his announcement that he will run for president in the lobby of Trump Tower in New York. (AP Photo/Richard Drew, File)

Before assessing his legacy, one must find a place to start. There are many choices, of course: his ancestry; his birth; his tutelage in real estate and New York City politics from his father; that famed escalator ride. One could even start by charting the rise of social media giants.

For the purposes of this brief assessment of his political life, two periods before his 2017 inauguration bear quick examination: his hosting "The Apprentice;" and his campaign to discredit President Obama as an illegitimate foreigner. 

"The Apprentice," an NBC hit that began in 2004 and lasted until 2017, resuscitated Trump’s career which had seen multiple flirtations with bankruptcy. It also completed his shift from making a living from building actual things -- to one marketing his own name. (As Forbes Magazine put it in 2015 – "Donald Trump's Real Secret To Riches: Create A Brand And License It.")

With this fertile ground as a bona fide national TV star oozing wealth and respect, Trump turned again to his longtime flirtation with a bid for public office. This time, he planted this: a false attack on Barack Obama by claiming he was Kenyan-born. 

It was a lie, of course, but it endeared Trump to a sizable pocket of the Republican Party and non-affiliated voters. Even if people doubted Trump’s claims, Trump got their attention – lots of it. And though they may have been put off by some things, they liked enough of what they heard. Even Obama got involved in the act. After ignoring Trump’s attack for years, he finally produced his birth  certificate.

"America First" is not a new message. But unlike in previous generations, when Trump said Make America Great Again (and swiped the slogan from Reagan), it sprouted, particularly among those disappointed at the lack of mobility in their own lives, and furious with how national leaders seemed so disconnected from their own struggles.

"He was shrewd enough to know that there were a lot of people – there are a lot of people in this country – who feel they've been left behind or passed over by the social, cultural, racial and economic changes that the country has gone through since the 1960s,” said Foner.

"Trump saw there was an opening there to appeal to people who just feel left behind, feel that the world they're comfortable with has been pretty much destroyed and nothing significant for them has taken its place," he added.

Trump infuriated a sizable portion of the nation; many saw him as racist. Ultimately that would be immaterial -- perhaps even helpful -- to his goals of being seen as unapologetically smash-mouth and entertaining. His campaign, online and in-person, was a performance; no one turned away, certainly not national cable news networks, which aired his speeches live and carried his tweets as breaking news. 

"Trump’s impact on politics was mesmerizing," Robert W. Smith, who taught a course "The Trump Factor in American Politics" when Trump was emerging as a candidate, wrote in an email. Those unsure could assure themselves that Trump would surround himself with smart people and grow into the job — all while deregulating businesses, championing religious liberty and gun rights, and appointing judges who would limit abortion rights. 

"Heck, if he could succeed in business certainly he can run the country," Smith added, channeling his would-be supporters.

 

The Personalized Presidency

President Donald Trump and Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte attend the opening ceremony at the ASEAN Summit at the Cultural Center of the Philippines, Monday, Nov. 13, 2017, in Manila, Philippines. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik, File)

Smith, now dean of the College of Public Affairs and Administration University of Illinois Springfield, sees Trump’s communication style as his true legacy. He calls it the Personalized Presidency: "The focus of the Presidency was solely on Donald J. Trump," he wrote. 

"The accuracy and correctness of positions and facts from the White House didn’t matter," he added. "It was only advancing what the President believed."

Often, it bordered on the dangerously absurd, beginning on the first day – when Trump’s press secretary claimed "the largest audience to ever witness an inauguration, period, both in person and around the globe." A top advisor would call it “alternative facts.” It was also an us-versus-them paradigm: Red states and Blue states, a Trump person or a Trump enemy.

There is much written about Trump’s perceived psychopathology (he’s denied that, calling himself in 2018 a “very stable genius”); a whole book is written about a so-called Trump cult. What’s clear – and what may be the most important aspect of his presidency – is that Trump tapped and leaned into vast distrust in American institutions: elected officials, government agencies and the news media.

The polling firm Gallup finds that trust in the press ranged between 68 percent and 72 percent in the 1970s. Around the time he was inaugurated, it was 32 percent, with the paltry respect in the mainstream press most pronounced among Republicans. (As of last September, it was 10 percent).

As the famed journalist A.J. Liebling wrote in 1960, "Freedom of the press is guaranteed only to those who own one." More than a half-century later, Trump was his own reporter, printing tens of thousands of Tweets that could reach readers directly, immediately — bypassing the typical gatekeepers.

"Trump took advantage of pre-existing distrust, polarization, and frustration in America and used rhetorical strategies that were designed to make all of those negative things worse,” Jennifer R. Mercieca, a professor in the Department of Communication at Texas A&M University and author of “Demagogue for President: The Rhetorical Genius of Donald Trump” wrote in an email.

"In so doing, he attacked America's public sphere, attacking America. Trump normalized bullying and aggression; he mainstreamed conspiracy theory and lies; he flooded our public sphere with outrage to keep us all attentive and engaged."

Smith is more measured. "He kindled political instincts that were long dormant and appealed to the disaffected," he added. "The politics of showboating had moved to center stage!"

Governing as President

FILE - In this March 23, 2017, file photo President Donald Trump honks the horn of an 18-wheeler truck while meeting with truckers and CEOs regarding healthcare on the South Lawn of the White House in Washington. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik, File)

It seems likely that even many years from now, we will be talking about the Summer of 2020 — especially the protests after the killing of George Floyd and the COVID-19 pandemic. The virus’ death toll is racing towards 400,000; last week, researchers announced it would shorten American life expectancy by more than a year, especially among Black and Latino populations. 

As it pertains to Trump, it’s possible that historians will note his deliberate downplaying of the threat -- and his reluctance to both wear a mask and give scientists the ability to speak freely about mitigation measures. But they may also note that no developed country save the far-away islands of New Zealand seems to be handling Covid superbly. And during Trump’s administration, scientists found a vaccine in record time. 

Trump’s family played a deeper role in his administration than perhaps any other since the Kennedy administration. His business ties will be further studied and are the subject of potential prosecution in his native New York, which will surely draw headlines months after he leaves. 

On the nitty-gritty of four years of Washington lawmaking, Trump supporters will argue Democrats never gave him a chance, seeing him as illegitimate from the get-go and bent on impeaching him. 

During Trump’s first two years, however, Democrats were in the minority in both the House of Representatives and the Senate, affording Trump the ability to pass sweeping tax cuts that sent the deficit upward; the stock market remains at or close to record highs after climbing through much of his presidency. Congress also passed sweeping reforms to federal criminal justice laws. 

Trump, who disputes the science of climate change, also shepherded major environmental regulatory cuts, calling them a burden on businesses; most notably, he pulled the United States out of the Paris Climate Accord, citing his belief it was unfair to the United States. 

Likewise, Trump tried ending Obama’s signature immigration program, DACA, which deferred deportation for some who arrived in the country as youngsters. But in June, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled his attempt was unlawful, and a judge in New York last month found the program had to take new applications. 

As for the border wall, Trump arguably gave the impression as a candidate that the barrier would span the entirety of the U.S.-Mexico border, nearly 2,000 miles; by the U.S. Customs and Border Protection’s own map, he has fallen well short. (Mexico never paid for it, but Trump did renegotiate the NAFTA agreement).

Perhaps what Americans will talk about most years from now when it comes to immigration was how migrant families were separated at the border; children taken sometimes thousands of miles away from their mothers. A court filing last month found  hundreds of families had not yet been reunited.

Trump and Republicans were never able to fully repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act — their efforts were most memorably done in by the 2017 “thumbs down” from the late Sen. John McCain of Arizona.  

But four years of a Senate majority also gave Trump the ability to post three Supreme Court justices (Neil Gorsuch in 2017; Brett Kavanaugh in 2018; Amy Coney Barrett in 2020). He reshaped the federal judiciary, appointing more than 200 judges to the federal bench — with nearly as many appeals court judges as Obama appointed in two terms.

On foreign policy, Trump will likely be best known for bellicose language towards China, even as Beijing’s power grows; his visit to North Korea and kind words towards dictator Kim Jong Un; reimagining post-World War II alliances, at least in words; and withdrawing from foreign wars, including in Afghanistan, where soldiers have been stationed for nearly two decades. His perceived warmth to Russia was legendary, but often overlooks repeated sanctions on Moscow.

He pulled out of the nuclear deal with Iran, but it hasn’t curbed Tehran’s nuclear ambitions. A year ago, an American drone strike killed a top Iranian military leader in Baghdad amid accusations he was responsible for the loss of American troops. 

After vowing for an Israel-Palestine peace agreement “we will get this done,” there is no new pact; Palestinians consider the U.S. one-sided, especially after Trump moved the American embassy to Jerusalem. Still, shared suspicion of Iran helped Israel normalize diplomatic relations with a number of Arab states in deals brokered by Trump’s son-in-law and top aide, Jared Kushner.

The Impeachments

In this file photo taken on Wednesday, Sept. 25, 2019, U.S. President Donald Trump meets with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy at the InterContinental Barclay New York hotel during the United Nations General Assembly, in New York. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci, File)

 

Foreign governments, and political self-preservation, are central to what led to Trump’s impeachment in late 2019: he was accused of leaning on Ukraine to discredit Joe Biden. The Senate ultimately acquitted him, with only one Republican, Mitt Romney of Utah, voting to remove him.  

On its face, the unprecedented second impeachment, just days ago, stems from Trump’s alleged incitement of the Capitol riot as he falsely claimed the election was stolen. Arguably, historians years from now will tie it to another seminal event in his term: the deadly white supremacist march on Charlottesville, Virginia in the summer of 2017. 

There, Confederate flags abounded; marchers carrying tiki torches shouted “Jews will not replace us.” After the mayhem, the president had a message for those who came to Virginia in the name of white Christian power and Dixie pride. 

"Very fine people, on both sides," he said.

More than three years later, rioters would also carry Confederate flags as they stormed the Capitol; in an address after telling them to go home, he added “we love you.”

All the while, the President who defends tributes to Confederate heros had been falsely claiming that election fraud in areas with high concentrations of Black voters denied him a second term.

Foner, who has written about a number of eras including Reconstruction after the Civil War, said that Trump’s perceived championship of those “who just feel left behind...unfortunately, can bleed very easily into blaming one group or another for this situation, whether it's black people, Jews, the so-called elites, the deep state. Conspiracy theorists are always looking for an easy explanation of very complicated events.”

The Capitol attack will have many legacies: the Senate trial, starting as early as Wednesday; additional security; and, perhaps, a new scrutiny from law enforcement on what some call domestic terrorism.

It’s unclear how much of America truly believes Trump’s loss wasn’t legitimate, but it's clear many members of his party do. Nearly 150 Republicans voted against certifying the election results — even after courts had repeatedly ruled the election was fair, even after states certified the results — and even after the riots. 

It should be noted that some Democrats have voted against certifying the Electoral College, but none of their presidential nominees in modern history refused to concede. Trump’s false narrative, which undermined faith in democracy itself and fueled a deadly insurrection, is without parallel. It has exposed democracy’s fragility, even here in the United States.

What's Next?

President Donald Trump walks to board Marine One on the South Lawn of the White House, Tuesday, Jan. 12, 2021 in Washington. The President is traveling to Texas. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)

Again, Trump’s term cannot be divorced from the era. Conspiracy theories have long flourished in the United States. Yet this time, humanity’s malignant ability to spread and believe falsehoods is turbocharged by technology. It reached the most powerful office in the world and is cracking the Republic’s foundation: a shared truth. 

A new poll finds nearly six in ten Americans blame Trump for the insurrection. And yet a key element of his legacy may be found in that eight in ten Republicans disagree that Trump is to blame for the violence — and also don’t trust that the results of the elections are accurate.  

In assessing what is to be Trump’s legacy, Foner zeroes in on the uncertain future of the Republican Party. Ten Republican members of Congress voted for impeachment; Trump is the first president since Herbert Hoover in 1932 to lose the White House and both houses of Congress on his watch. 

And yet, while Trump lost his second term, he got more than ten million more votes than last time; only about 43,000 more Trump votes over three states would have yielded an Electoral College tie. Trump allies control major infrastructure like the Republican National Committee. 

Trump may spark changes to how parties choose leaders and how Congress certifies elections. It’s possible there will be a major push within states to require candidates release their tax returns. 

A few other unknowns: Will Trump be the de facto party leader from exile, even if he’s denied a social media handle, and even if the Senate votes to bar him from running again? Will another be able channel his style and appeal? Will debate over Trump cleave the Party of Lincoln? Will he be prosecuted?

And will the United States en masse reject the "alternative facts" that energized so many? 

Foner gets the last prediction: 

"I think the main point is Trump may be gone. Trump may never hold office again, but Trumpism is still here," he says. "It's still alive and well and it's not going away. And that's, I think, a significant change in American politics –building on the past, but now leading to a very uncertain, unstable and, frankly, dangerous future."