- Donald Trump leads Republican primary with 42 percent of likely voters
- 61 percent of likely Democratic voters say they would vote for Hillary Clinton
- Hillary Clinton would defeat Marco Rubio or Ted Cruz based on poll numbers but not Donald Trump
What will the outcome of the presidential primary elections be? Will it be Trump and Clinton? Rubio and Sanders? Cruz and Clinton?
The results are in from an exclusive statewide News 13/Bay News 9 poll, and if the results are any indication as to how things will play out in November, it's going to be a close race for the White House.
However, the primary elections don't appear to be nearly as tight.
Nearly half - 42 percent - of the Republicans polled say that if the March 15 primary were held today, they would vote for Donald Trump. Marco Rubio received support from 22 percent of those polled, while 17 percent said they would vote for Ted Cruz.
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton has a landslide lead in the poll. Out of those who were surveyed, 61 percent said they would vote for Clinton if the primary were held today, while only 30 percent said their vote would go to Bernie Sanders.
The voters were also asked who they would vote for if today were Election Day. Clinton leads against Rubio and Cruz but not Trump.
FLORIDA PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY COVERAGE
- March 15 starting at 5 p.m.
- All presidential results plus your local races
- Tampa Bay local election results on Bay News 9
- Central Florida local election results on News 13
If Trump and Clinton were the candidates in November, Trump would win with 45 percent of the vote to Clinton's 44 percent. If it's between Cruz and Clinton, Clinton would receive 46 percent of the votes while Cruz would receive 44 percent. Clinton would also lead against Rubio with 45 percent of the votes against the Florida senator's 44 percent of the votes.
It should be noted that in all three match-ups, the difference between the candidates is within the margin of error.
Join us Tuesday night starting at 5 p.m. for more exclusive poll results, and find out what Floridians think is the biggest issue facing the 2016 presidential candidates.
Detailed Poll Results
Q: If you were filling out your Republican presidential primary ballot right now, who would you vote for?
| All | Gender |
Age |
Race |
|||||||
| Male |
Female |
18-34 |
35-49 |
50-64 |
65+ |
White |
Black |
Asian/ Other |
||
| Donald Trump | 42% | 44% |
41% |
40% |
41% |
44% |
42% |
42% |
** |
** |
| Ted Cruz | 17% |
18% |
16% |
19% |
17% |
16% |
17% |
16% | ** | ** |
| Marco Rubio | 22% |
22% |
23% |
24% |
22% |
21% |
23% |
23% |
** | ** |
| John Kasich | 10% |
7% |
13% |
3% |
9% |
11% |
13% |
11% |
** | ** |
| Other | 3% |
3% |
3% |
4% |
4% |
3% |
2% |
3% |
** | ** |
| Undecided | 5% |
6% |
4% |
9% |
7% |
4% |
3% |
5% |
** | ** |
| Composition of likely/actual GOP primary voters |
100% |
52% |
48% |
13% |
21% |
34% |
32% |
92% |
4% |
4% |
| Party Affiliation |
|||||||
| Strong Rep. |
Republican | Ind. lean Rep. |
Independent | Ind. lean Dem. |
Democrat |
Strong Dem. |
|
| Donald Trump |
48% | 43% | 34% | ** | ** | ** | ** |
| Ted Cruz |
19% | 13% | 17% | ** | ** | ** | ** |
| Marco Rubio |
24% | 22% | 20% | ** | ** | ** | ** |
| John Kasich |
6% | 12% | 14% | ** | ** | ** | ** |
| Other |
2% | 2% | 6% | ** | ** | ** | ** |
| Undecided |
1% | 7% | 9% | ** | ** | ** | ** |
| Composition of likely/actual GOP primary voters |
43% | 32% | 19% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% |
| Ideology | Tea Party | ||||||
| Very Conserv. | Conserv. | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib. | Yes | No | |
| Donald Trump | 39% | 47% | 41% | ** | ** | 51% | 39% |
| Ted Cruz | 29% | 16% | 7% | ** | ** | 25% | 14% |
| Marco Rubio | 23% | 22% | 22% | ** | ** | 13% | 25% |
| John Kasich | 5% | 8% | 20% | ** | ** | 5% | 12% |
| Other | 2% | 2% | 4% | ** | ** | 2% | 4% |
| Undecided | 3% | 6% | 6% | ** | ** | 3% | 5% |
| Composition of likely/actual GOP primary voters |
30% | 36% | 28% | 2% | 1% | 21% | 70% |
| Education | Income | |||||
| High School | Some College | 4-yr College | < $40K | $40K - $80K | > $80K | |
| Donald Trump | 52% | 41% | 41% | 48% | 44% | 39% |
| Ted Cruz | 15% | 20% | 15% | 14% | 17% | 18% |
| Marco Rubio | 20% | 19% | 26% | 20% | 24% | 23% |
| John Kasich | 4% | 8% | 13% | 9% | 8% | 13% |
| Other | 4% | 4% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 3% |
| Undecided | 5% | 8% | 3% | 5% | 4% | 5% |
| Composition of likely/actual GOP primary voters |
14% | 34% | 52% | 23% | 37% | 40% |
Surveyed: 937 likely & actual GOP presidential primary voters
Margin of sampling error: ± 3.3%
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.
Q: If you were filling out your Democratic presidential primary ballot right now, who would you vote for?
| All | Gender |
Age |
Race |
|||||||
| Male |
Female |
18-34 |
35-49 |
50-64 |
65+ |
White |
Black |
Asian/ Other |
||
| Hillary Clinton |
61% | 57% | 64% | 50% | 60% | 63% | 69% | 57% | 72% | 61% |
| Bernie Sanders |
30% | 33% | 28% | 45% | 27% | 30% | 23% | 35% | 17% | 36% |
| Undecided | 9% | 10% | 8% | 5% | 13% | 7% | 9% | 9% | 11% | 3% |
| Composition of likely/actual Dem. primary voters |
100% | 43% | 57% | 19% | 28% | 27% | 25% | 66% | 26% | 7% |
| Party Affiliation |
|||||||
| Strong Rep. |
Republican | Ind. lean Rep. |
Independent | Ind. lean Dem. |
Democrat |
Strong Dem. |
|
| Hillary Clinton |
** | ** | ** | 27% | 50% | 67% | 70% |
| Bernie Sanders |
** | ** | ** | 57% | 40% | 27% | 24% |
| Undecided |
** | ** | ** | 16% | 10% | 6% | 6% |
| Composition of likely/actual Dem. primary voters |
2% | 1% | 3% | 5% | 13% | 39% | 36% |
| Ideology | Tea Party | ||||||
| Very Conserv. | Conserv. | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib. | Yes | No | |
| Hillary Clinton |
59% | 62% | 63% | 62% | 52% | ** | 62% |
| Bernie Sanders |
33% | 23% | 28% | 34% | 36% | ** | 30% |
| Undecided | 8% | 15% | 8% | 4% | 12% | ** | 8% |
| Composition of likely/actual Dem. primary voters |
5% | 12% | 33% | 30% | 15% | 3% | 92% |
| Education | Income | |||||
| High School | Some College | 4-yr College | < $40K | $40K - $80K | > $80K | |
| Hillary Clinton |
63% | 60% | 61% | 62% | 55% | 70% |
| Bernie Sanders |
29% | 29% | 31% | 30% | 37% | 21% |
| Undecided | 8% | 10% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 9% |
| Composition of likely/actual Dem. primary voters |
13% | 34% | 53% | 28% | 40% | 32% |
Surveyed: 823 likely & actual Democratic presidential primary voters
Margin of sampling error: ± 3.4%
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.
Q: If the November election for President were today and the only candidates on the ballot were Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton, who would you vote for?
| All | Gender |
Age |
Race |
|||||||
| Male |
Female |
18-34 |
35-49 |
50-64 |
65+ |
White |
Black |
Asian/ Other |
||
| Donald Trump (R) |
45% |
49% |
41% |
31% |
35% |
51% |
52% |
50% |
14% |
34% |
| Hillary Clinton (D) |
44% |
41% |
46% |
51% |
53% |
38% |
38% |
37% |
82% |
53% |
| Undecided | 12% |
10% |
13% |
18% |
12% |
11% |
10% |
13% |
3% |
13% |
| Composition of likely/actual November voters |
100% |
48% |
52% |
13% |
25% |
32% |
29% |
82% |
12% |
6% |
| Party Affiliation |
|||||||
| Strong Rep. |
Republican | Ind. lean Rep. |
Independent | Ind. lean Dem. |
Democrat |
Strong Dem. |
|
| Donald Trump (R) |
83% |
72% |
63% |
38% |
13% |
11% |
5% |
| Hillary Clinton (D) |
5% |
16% |
17% |
40% |
75% |
83% |
93% |
| Undecided |
12% |
12% |
19% |
23% |
12% |
6% |
3% |
| Composition of likely/actual November voters |
21% |
15% |
14% |
9% |
9% |
17% |
15% |
| Ideology | Tea Party | ||||||
| Very Conserv. | Conserv. | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib. | Yes | No | |
| Donald Trump (R) |
73% |
69% |
39% |
8% |
9% |
81% |
38% |
| Hillary Clinton (D) |
12% |
20% |
49% |
81% |
87% |
8% |
51% |
| Undecided | 16% |
11% |
12% |
11% |
3% |
11% |
11% |
| Composition of likely/actual November voters |
18% |
24% |
31% |
15% |
8% |
12% |
81% |
| Education | Income | |||||
| High School | Some College | 4-yr College | < $40K | $40K - $80K | > $80K | |
| Donald Trump (R) |
54% |
49% |
40% |
43% |
47% |
43% |
| Hillary Clinton (D) |
35% |
40% |
49% |
45% |
41% |
46% |
| Undecided | 12% |
11% |
11% |
12% |
12% |
10% |
| Composition of likely/actual November voters |
15% |
34% |
51% |
27% |
38% |
35% |
Surveyed: 1,961 likely November voters
Margin of sampling error: ± 2.3%
Q: If the November election for President were today and the only candidates on the ballot were Republican Ted Cruz and Democrat Hillary Clinton, who would you vote for?
| All | Gender |
Age |
Race |
|||||||
| Male |
Female |
18-34 |
35-49 |
50-64 |
65+ |
White |
Black |
Asian/ Other |
||
| Ted Cruz (R) |
44% |
48% |
41% |
43% |
39% |
45% |
48% |
49% |
17% |
33% |
| Hillary Clinton (D) |
46% |
43% |
49% |
47% |
53% |
45% |
40% |
40% |
79% |
55% |
| Undecided | 10% |
9% |
10% |
10% |
8% |
10% |
12% |
11% |
4% |
11% |
| Composition of likely/actual November voters |
100% |
48% |
52% |
13% |
25% |
32% |
29% |
82% |
12% |
6% |
| Party Affiliation |
|||||||
| Strong Rep. |
Republican | Ind. lean Rep. |
Independent | Ind. lean Dem. |
Democrat |
Strong Dem. |
|
| Ted Cruz (R) |
82% |
70% |
64% |
41% |
12% |
8% |
6% |
| Hillary Clinton (D) |
8% |
18% |
19% |
42% |
76% |
88% |
92% |
| Undecided |
10% |
12% |
17% |
17% |
12% |
4% |
2% |
| Composition of likely/actual November voters |
21% |
15% |
14% |
9% |
9% |
17% |
15% |
| Ideology | Tea Party | ||||||
| Very Conserv. | Conserv. | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib. | Yes | No | |
| Ted Cruz (R) |
81% |
71% |
32% |
7% |
9% |
82% |
37% |
| Hillary Clinton (D) |
11% |
22% |
53% |
85% |
88% |
11% |
53% |
| Undecided | 8% |
8% |
14% |
8% |
3% |
7% |
10% |
| Composition of likely/actual November voters |
18% |
24% |
31% |
15% |
8% |
12% |
81% |
| Education | Income | |||||
| High School | Some College | 4-yr College | < $40K | $40K - $80K | > $80K | |
| Ted Cruz (R) |
50% |
47% |
40% |
44% |
46% |
42% |
| Hillary Clinton (D) |
39% |
43% |
51% |
47% |
44% |
49% |
| Undecided | 11% |
10% |
9% |
9% |
10% |
10% |
| Composition of likely/actual November voters |
15% |
34% |
51% |
27% |
38% |
35% |
Surveyed: 1,961 likely November voters
Margin of sampling error: ± 2.3%
Q: If the November election for President were today and the only candidates on the ballot were Republican Marco Rubio and Democrat Hillary Clinton, who would you vote for?
| All | Gender |
Age |
Race |
|||||||
| Male |
Female |
18-34 |
35-49 |
50-64 |
65+ |
White |
Black |
Asian/ Other |
||
| Marco Rubio (R) |
44% | 48% | 41% | 42% | 39% | 46% | 48% | 50% | 16% | 29% |
| Hillary Clinton (D) |
45% | 41% | 48% | 45% | 52% | 45% | 40% | 39% | 82% | 55% |
| Undecided | 11% | 11% | 10% | 13% | 9% | 10% | 12% | 12% | 2% | 16% |
| Composition of likely/actual November voters |
100% | 48% | 52% | 13% | 25% | 32% | 29% | 82% | 12% | 6% |
| Party Affiliation |
|||||||
| Strong Rep. |
Republican | Ind. lean Rep. |
Independent | Ind. lean Dem. |
Democrat |
Strong Dem. |
|
| Marco Rubio (R) |
80% | 73% | 65% | 40% | 13% | 9% | 4% |
| Hillary Clinton (D) |
9% | 17% | 16% | 38% | 73% | 87% | 94% |
| Undecided |
11% | 10% | 19% | 22% | 14% | 5% | 2% |
| Composition of likely/actual November voters |
21% | 15% | 14% | 9% | 9% | 17% | 15% |
| Ideology | Tea Party | ||||||
| Very Conserv. | Conserv. | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib. | Yes | No | |
| Marco Rubio (R) |
74% | 70% | 35% | 11% | 8% | 73% | 39% |
| Hillary Clinton (D) |
15% | 22% | 50% | 82% | 89% | 15% | 51% |
| Undecided | 11% | 8% | 15% | 7% | 4% | 12% | 10% |
| Composition of likely/actual November voters |
18% | 24% | 31% | 15% | 8% | 12% | 81% |
| Education | Income | |||||
| High School | Some College | 4-yr College | < $40K | $40K - $80K | > $80K | |
| Marco Rubio (R) |
50% | 45% | 42% | 43% | 46% | 43% |
| Hillary Clinton (D) |
39% | 43% | 49% | 47% | 43% | 47% |
| Undecided | 11% | 12% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 10% |
| Composition of likely/actual November voters |
15% | 34% | 51% | 27% | 38% | 35% |
Surveyed: 1,961 likely November voters
Margin of sampling error: ± 2.3%
This Florida Decides Exclusive Statewide Poll was conducted by SurveyUSA from March 4-6. Pollsters surveyed 2,450 likely voters via home phones and smart devices. Respondents reachable on a home phone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents who were not reachable by home phone were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other device.