ORLANDO, FL

Conditions in the Atlantic again look favorable for an active hurricane season, according to a forecast issued Thursday by Colorado State University.

  • Colorado State team issues first hurricane forecast for 2018
  • Predicts 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes
  • Next forecast coming in late May

Dr. Phil Klotzbach and the forecast team at the university are forecasting 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes in 2018. The statistical averages are 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.

Klotzbach cited five years that have a similar setup to the start of this season. 1960, 1967, 1996, 2006 and 2011 are the closest analogs.

Three of the five years produced above-average named storms, with 2011 having 19 named storms.

1960, 1967 and 2006 all produced named storms that impacted Florida. Donna in 1960 was the lone major hurricane.

The forecast team cited a weak La Nina event at the start of the hurricane season as one of the key reasons for the above-average forecast, possibly transitioning to a neutral state.

A La Nina state means waters in the eastern Pacific are cooler than normal. Years that feature La Nina conditions often produce above-average hurricane seasons in the Atlantic.

If a La Nina pattern pushes into an El Nino state later this year, the 2018 season could actually be below-average. El Nino years are related to below-average hurricane seasons in the Atlantic.

The Colorado State team also note sea-surface temperatures are well above-average in the eastern tropical Atlantic. This could also result in above-average activity.

Klotzbach and his team are predicting a 39 percent chance of a major hurricane hitting the East Coast and the Florida Peninsula. The historical average is 31 percent on any given year.

April hurricane forecasts sometimes struggle with accuracy. The Colorado State forecast in April 2017 forecasted a below-average season with 11 named storms, 4 hurricane and 2 major hurricanes.

Of course 2017 turned into a very active year, with 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes and 6 major hurricanes.

Another forecast from Colorado State is anticipated in late May.

Now is the time to begin preparing for Hurricane Season 2018. No matter how many storms form, it only takes one system to directly impact Central Florida and cause issues.

We’ll be tracking the tropics all season long here on Spectrum News 13.