FLORIDA -- Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorology Project team provided an updated hurricane season forecast Thursday, and although they’ve upped a couple numbers since their last update in July, they are still calling for a below average season ahead.
They are citing much cooler than normal sea surface temps in the Atlantic, high wind shear (increasing wind speed and changes in direction as you go up in the atmosphere) over the Caribbean and a potential we’ll see a weak El Nino develop this fall.
APRIL SEASON PREDICTION:
- 14 named storms
- 7 hurricanes
- 3 major hurricanes
We’ve already had three named storms so far this season, with Subtropical Storm Alberto in late May, then Category 1 Hurricane Beryl and Category 2 Hurricane Chris in July.
So here is what the CSU team is thinking for the rest of hurricane season:
AUGUST SEASON PREDICTION:
- 9 additional named storms
- 3 hurricanes
- 1 major hurricane
CSU also included their probability of a major hurricane making landfall along Florida’s east coast, giving us a very low chance at 20 percent. This is down from 39 percent back in April.
Setting all the numbers aside, the most important thing to remember is that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season.
Your hurricane plans should already be in place and your kit ready to go, and if something should develop, don’t be scared, you’ve already prepared.
The National Hurricane Center will provide their insights and a new forecast Thursday, Aug. 9.