Donald Trump is dominating in our exclusive Florida Decides presidential poll released Tuesday, both among his fellow Republican candidates and likely Democratic challengers in a head-to-head general election.
Here are some of the main highlights of the Bay News 9 / News 13 Florida Decides Poll, conducted via telephone from Wednesday, Oct. 28 through Sunday, Nov. 1.
- Trump tops Ben Carson and Marco Rubio 2:1 in a GOP primary
- Former Gov. Jeb Bush runs 5th among the top 8 GOP candidates
- Hillary Clinton dispatches Bernie Sanders 3:1 in a Democratic primary
- Florida would go red if Trump or Carson face Clinton in general election
Jump to the view the complete poll results ▼
The poll found 37 percent of Floridians likely to vote in the Republican primary on March 15 said they would vote for Trump if the primary were held today (View Results: GOP Primary ▼).
Trump had a large, 20 percent lead over his closest runner-up, Ben Carson, who got 17 percent support from likely Republican voters. Not far behind Carson was Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, with 16 percent.
We asked our Republican political analyst, former U.S. Rep. Lou Frey, what makes Trump a Florida favorite, overpowering both Rubio and former Gov. Jeb Bush in their home state.
"I don't understand how he's gotten so many votes, actually, in Florida, but I think he's earned them. He's worked hard at it," Frey said.
Our exclusive poll also showed Hillary Clinton with a fierce lead, 66 percent to Bernie Sanders' 24 percent, among likely Democratic voters (View Results: Democratic Primary ▼). Our Democratic political analyst, former state Rep. Dick Batchelor, said we would likely see a similar result on primary day.
"She's very popular in the state; she'll do very well," Batchelor said. "Bernie Sanders might come up by a few points, but he's not going to win the nomination. Hillary Clinton is going to win the nomination in Florida."
But Batchelor doesn't think the success of nontraditional candidates like Trump and Carson will stick a year from now, when the votes really count.
"I don't think people are serious about it," Batchelor said. "The fact is I would welcome it as a Democrat if Ben Carson or Donald Trump would be the Republican nominee. I hope that's the case. Give them to us, because I think Hilary Clinton would beat them both."
The poll, however, tells a different story. Voters surveyed picked both Trump and Carson over Clinton in a head-to-head matchup on Election Day 2016. (View Results: Clinton vs. Trump ▼ | Clinton vs. Carson ▼)
Clinton's chances were better against he lower-polling Bush and Carly Fiorina, but against Rubio, Florida is too close to call. (View Results: Clinton vs. Bush ▼ | Clinton vs. Rubio ▼ | Clinton vs. Fiorina ▼)
In each matchup, however, 9 percent of voters said they were still undecided.
One thing that surprised both analysts was the low number of undecided voters when it came to each party's primary: 6 percent among likely Democratic voters and only 3 percent among Republicans polled.
"They know what they want, and they're probably going to change their mind a whole bunch along the line," Frey said.
Poll Results & Highlights
- If the primary election were today, who would you vote for?
- If the general election were today, who would you vote for?
Republican Primary
Q: If the Republican primary for president were today, who would you vote for?
| ALL |
TOTAL |
        |
|---|
| Donald Trump |
37% |
| Ben Carson |
17% |
| Carly Fiorina |
3% |
| Marco Rubio |
16% |
| Jeb Bush |
7% |
| Ted Cruz |
10% |
| John Kasich |
3% |
| Mike Huckabee |
1% |
| Other |
2% |
| Undecided |
3% |
| GENDER |
Male |
Female |
|
|---|
| Donald Trump |
39% |
33% |
| Ben Carson |
15% |
20% |
| Carly Fiorina |
3% |
3% |
| Marco Rubio |
16% |
16% |
| Jeb Bush |
7% |
8% |
| Ted Cruz |
12% |
9% |
| John Kasich |
3% |
4% |
| Mike Huckabee |
0% |
2% |
| Other |
2% |
2% |
| Undecided |
3% |
4% |
| AGE GROUP |
18–34 |
35–49 |
50–64 |
65+ |
|---|
| Donald Trump |
33% |
42% |
40% |
31% |
| Ben Carson |
28% |
16% |
15% |
16% |
| Carly Fiorina |
5% |
4% |
3% |
2% |
| Marco Rubio |
11% |
13% |
14% |
21% |
| Jeb Bush |
4% |
6% |
9% |
8% |
| Ted Cruz |
7% |
6% |
12% |
11% |
| John Kasich |
2% |
4% |
2% |
5% |
| Mike Huckabee |
2% |
0% |
2% |
0% |
| Other |
5% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
| Undecided |
2% |
7% |
2% |
4% |
| |
Under 50 |
50+ |
|
|---|
| Donald Trump |
39% |
36% |
| Ben Carson |
21% |
16% |
| Carly Fiorina |
5% |
2% |
| Marco Rubio |
12% |
18% |
| Jeb Bush |
5% |
8% |
| Ted Cruz |
7% |
12% |
| John Kasich |
3% |
3% |
| Mike Huckabee |
1% |
1% |
| Other |
3% |
1% |
| Undecided |
5% |
3% |
| HISPANIC |
Cuban |
Non-Cuban |
|
|---|
| Donald Trump |
25% |
41% |
| Ben Carson |
23% |
15% |
| Carly Fiorina |
5% |
4% |
| Marco Rubio |
23% |
9% |
| Jeb Bush |
9% |
13% |
| Ted Cruz |
9% |
3% |
| John Kasich |
5% |
1% |
| Mike Huckabee |
0% |
4% |
| Other |
0% |
10% |
| Undecided |
2% |
0% |
| RACE |
White |
Black |
Asian / Other |
|
|---|
| Donald Trump |
37% |
28% |
** |
| Ben Carson |
17% |
33% |
** |
| Carly Fiorina |
3% |
8% |
** |
| Marco Rubio |
17% |
11% |
** |
| Jeb Bush |
7% |
7% |
** |
| Ted Cruz |
10% |
7% |
** |
| John Kasich |
3% |
6% |
** |
| Mike Huckabee |
1% |
0% |
** |
| Other |
2% |
0% |
** |
| Undecided |
4% |
0% |
** |
| AFFILIATION |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
|
|---|
| Donald Trump |
37% |
** |
31% |
| Ben Carson |
18% |
** |
11% |
| Carly Fiorina |
3% |
** |
6% |
| Marco Rubio |
16% |
** |
8% |
| Jeb Bush |
8% |
** |
4% |
| Ted Cruz |
10% |
** |
11% |
| John Kasich |
3% |
** |
11% |
| Mike Huckabee |
1% |
** |
0% |
| Other |
1% |
** |
9% |
| Undecided |
3% |
** |
9% |
| IDEOLOGY |
Conservative |
Moderate |
Liberal |
|
|---|
| Donald Trump |
35% |
38% |
** |
| Ben Carson |
19% |
15% |
** |
| Carly Fiorina |
3% |
3% |
** |
| Marco Rubio |
16% |
17% |
** |
| Jeb Bush |
5% |
12% |
** |
| Ted Cruz |
13% |
4% |
** |
| John Kasich |
3% |
4% |
** |
| Mike Huckabee |
2% |
0% |
** |
| Other |
1% |
4% |
** |
| Undecided |
3% |
3% |
** |
| TOP ISSUE |
Economy |
Immigration |
National Security |
Health Care |
|---|
| Donald Trump |
35% |
49% |
32% |
35% |
| Ben Carson |
16% |
13% |
20% |
28% |
| Carly Fiorina |
3% |
1% |
3% |
0% |
| Marco Rubio |
18% |
9% |
22% |
15% |
| Jeb Bush |
8% |
5% |
6% |
9% |
| Ted Cruz |
12% |
16% |
7% |
3% |
| John Kasich |
4% |
1% |
3% |
2% |
| Mike Huckabee |
0% |
2% |
1% |
4% |
| Other |
2% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
| Undecided |
3% |
2% |
5% |
3% |
| EDUCATION |
High School |
Some College |
College Degree |
|
|---|
| Donald Trump |
38% |
38% |
35% |
| Ben Carson |
13% |
20% |
17% |
| Carly Fiorina |
1% |
2% |
4% |
| Marco Rubio |
17% |
13% |
18% |
| Jeb Bush |
10% |
6% |
8% |
| Ted Cruz |
9% |
11% |
10% |
| John Kasich |
3% |
3% |
4% |
| Mike Huckabee |
2% |
1% |
1% |
| Other |
1% |
3% |
1% |
| Undecided |
6% |
3% |
2% |
| INCOME |
Under $40K |
$40K – $80K |
Over $80K |
|
|---|
| Donald Trump |
40% |
37% |
33% |
| Ben Carson |
15% |
17% |
19% |
| Carly Fiorina |
2% |
4% |
3% |
| Marco Rubio |
14% |
15% |
19% |
| Jeb Bush |
10% |
6% |
6% |
| Ted Cruz |
9% |
10% |
12% |
| John Kasich |
3% |
3% |
4% |
| Mike Huckabee |
1% |
1% |
1% |
| Other |
2% |
2% |
1% |
| Undecided |
4% |
3% |
3% |
| REGION |
Northwest |
Northeast |
Central |
Southwest |
|---|
| Donald Trump |
28% |
44% |
39% |
35% |
| Ben Carson |
23% |
14% |
17% |
18% |
| Carly Fiorina |
1% |
1% |
2% |
3% |
| Marco Rubio |
24% |
16% |
15% |
18% |
| Jeb Bush |
4% |
4% |
8% |
7% |
| Ted Cruz |
15% |
13% |
9% |
7% |
| John Kasich |
1% |
2% |
3% |
5% |
| Mike Huckabee |
2% |
1% |
1% |
2% |
| Other |
0% |
0% |
2% |
2% |
| Undecided |
3% |
5% |
3% |
4% |
| |
Southeast |
|
|---|
| Donald Trump |
35% |
| Ben Carson |
17% |
| Carly Fiorina |
5% |
| Marco Rubio |
13% |
| Jeb Bush |
10% |
| Ted Cruz |
12% |
| John Kasich |
3% |
| Mike Huckabee |
0% |
| Other |
2% |
| Undecided |
2% |
Democratic Primary
Q: If the Democratic primary for president were today, who would you vote for?
| ALL |
TOTAL |
   |
|---|
| Hillary Clinton |
66% |
| Bernie Sanders |
24% |
| Martin O'Malley |
3% |
| Other |
2% |
| Undecided |
6% |
| GENDER |
Male |
Female |
|
|---|
| Hillary Clinton |
62% |
68% |
| Bernie Sanders |
27% |
21% |
| Martin O'Malley |
4% |
2% |
| Other |
2% |
2% |
| Undecided |
5% |
6% |
| AGE GROUP |
18–34 |
35–49 |
50–64 |
65+ |
|---|
| Hillary Clinton |
50% |
69% |
65% |
72% |
| Bernie Sanders |
41% |
19% |
26% |
16% |
| Martin O'Malley |
5% |
3% |
2% |
4% |
| Other |
0% |
1% |
2% |
3% |
| Undecided |
4% |
8% |
6% |
5% |
| |
Under 50 |
50+ |
|
|---|
| Hillary Clinton |
61% |
68% |
| Bernie Sanders |
28% |
21% |
| Martin O'Malley |
4% |
3% |
| Other |
1% |
3% |
| Undecided |
6% |
5% |
| HISPANIC |
Cuban |
Non-Cuban |
|
|---|
| Hillary Clinton |
** |
75% |
| Bernie Sanders |
** |
19% |
| Martin O'Malley |
** |
3% |
| Other |
** |
1% |
| Undecided |
** |
2% |
| RACE |
White |
Black |
Asian / Other |
|
|---|
| Hillary Clinton |
60% |
81% |
75% |
| Bernie Sanders |
29% |
9% |
15% |
| Martin O'Malley |
3% |
2% |
3% |
| Other |
2% |
1% |
5% |
| Undecided |
6% |
6% |
3% |
| AFFILIATION |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
|
|---|
| Hillary Clinton |
** |
68% |
** |
| Bernie Sanders |
** |
23% |
** |
| Martin O'Malley |
** |
3% |
** |
| Other |
** |
2% |
** |
| Undecided |
** |
5% |
** |
| IDEOLOGY |
Conservative |
Moderate |
Liberal |
|
|---|
| Hillary Clinton |
58% |
71% |
63% |
| Bernie Sanders |
23% |
18% |
32% |
| Martin O'Malley |
6% |
4% |
1% |
| Other |
3% |
2% |
1% |
| Undecided |
9% |
6% |
3% |
| TOP ISSUE |
Economy |
Immigration |
National Security |
Health Care |
|---|
| Hillary Clinton |
68% |
66% |
65% |
68% |
| Bernie Sanders |
24% |
11% |
20% |
24% |
| Martin O'Malley |
3% |
7% |
2% |
1% |
| Other |
1% |
5% |
5% |
1% |
| Undecided |
4% |
11% |
8% |
8% |
| EDUCATION |
High School |
Some College |
College Degree |
|
|---|
| Hillary Clinton |
70% |
64% |
66% |
| Bernie Sanders |
12% |
25% |
26% |
| Martin O'Malley |
4% |
4% |
2% |
| Other |
4% |
1% |
2% |
| Undecided |
10% |
6% |
4% |
| INCOME |
Under $40K |
$40K – $80K |
Over $80K |
|
|---|
| Hillary Clinton |
66% |
63% |
69% |
| Bernie Sanders |
21% |
26% |
25% |
| Martin O'Malley |
3% |
3% |
4% |
| Other |
2% |
2% |
1% |
| Undecided |
8% |
6% |
2% |
| REGION |
Northwest |
Northeast |
Central |
Southwest |
|---|
| Hillary Clinton |
79% |
51% |
62% |
62% |
| Bernie Sanders |
8% |
33% |
26% |
25% |
| Martin O'Malley |
2% |
2% |
6% |
4% |
| Other |
5% |
1% |
1% |
2% |
| Undecided |
6% |
13% |
4% |
7% |
| |
Southeast |
|
|---|
| Hillary Clinton |
73% |
| Bernie Sanders |
21% |
| Martin O'Malley |
1% |
| Other |
2% |
| Undecided |
4% |
General Election: Clinton vs. Trump
Q: If the general election for president were today and the candidates were Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump, who would you vote for?
| ALL |
TOTAL |
|
|---|
| Hillary Clinton |
43% |
| Donald Trump |
47% |
| Undecided |
9% |
| GENDER |
Male |
Female |
|
|---|
| Hillary Clinton |
39% |
47% |
| Donald Trump |
53% |
42% |
| Undecided |
8% |
10% |
| AGE GROUP |
18–34 |
35–49 |
50–64 |
65+ |
|---|
| Hillary Clinton |
48% |
45% |
42% |
41% |
| Donald Trump |
41% |
44% |
49% |
51% |
| Undecided |
11% |
11% |
9% |
9% |
| |
Under 50 |
50+ |
|
|---|
| Hillary Clinton |
46% |
41% |
| Donald Trump |
43% |
50% |
| Undecided |
11% |
9% |
| HISPANIC |
Cuban |
Non-Cuban |
|
|---|
| Hillary Clinton |
** |
57% |
| Donald Trump |
** |
35% |
| Undecided |
** |
8% |
| RACE |
White |
Black |
Asian / Other |
|
|---|
| Hillary Clinton |
37% |
82% |
50% |
| Donald Trump |
53% |
13% |
39% |
| Undecided |
10% |
5% |
11% |
| PARTY REGISTRATION |
Republican |
Democrat |
Unaffiliated |
|
|---|
| Hillary Clinton |
9% |
81% |
36% |
| Donald Trump |
82% |
13% |
45% |
| Undecided |
9% |
5% |
19% |
| AFFILIATION |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
|
|---|
| Hillary Clinton |
9% |
82% |
35% |
| Donald Trump |
82% |
13% |
46% |
| Undecided |
9% |
5% |
18% |
| IDEOLOGY |
Conservative |
Moderate |
Liberal |
|
|---|
| Hillary Clinton |
14% |
48% |
86% |
| Donald Trump |
78% |
40% |
9% |
| Undecided |
8% |
12% |
5% |
| TOP ISSUE |
Economy |
Immigration |
National Security |
Health Care |
|---|
| Hillary Clinton |
44% |
25% |
24% |
63% |
| Donald Trump |
46% |
71% |
64% |
28% |
| Undecided |
10% |
4% |
12% |
9% |
| EDUCATION |
High School |
Some College |
College Degree |
|
|---|
| Hillary Clinton |
39% |
42% |
46% |
| Donald Trump |
47% |
48% |
46% |
| Undecided |
14% |
10% |
8% |
| INCOME |
Under $40K |
$40K – $80K |
Over $80K |
|
|---|
| Hillary Clinton |
47% |
41% |
42% |
| Donald Trump |
42% |
49% |
50% |
| Undecided |
11% |
9% |
8% |
| REGION |
Northwest |
Northeast |
Central |
Southwest |
|---|
| Hillary Clinton |
34% |
42% |
39% |
43% |
| Donald Trump |
59% |
50% |
53% |
48% |
| Undecided |
7% |
9% |
8% |
9% |
| |
Southeast |
|
|---|
| Hillary Clinton |
51% |
| Donald Trump |
37% |
| Undecided |
12% |
General Election: Clinton vs. Carson
Q: What if it were Hillary Clinton and Republican Ben Carson?
| ALL |
TOTAL |
|
|---|
| Hillary Clinton |
44% |
| Ben Carson |
47% |
| Undecided |
9% |
| GENDER |
Male |
Female |
|
|---|
| Hillary Clinton |
41% |
48% |
| Ben Carson |
50% |
43% |
| Undecided |
9% |
9% |
| AGE GROUP |
18–34 |
35–49 |
50–64 |
65+ |
|---|
| Hillary Clinton |
48% |
47% |
44% |
42% |
| Ben Carson |
42% |
43% |
47% |
51% |
| Undecided |
11% |
10% |
9% |
7% |
| |
Under 50 |
50+ |
|
|---|
| Hillary Clinton |
47% |
43% |
| Ben Carson |
42% |
49% |
| Undecided |
11% |
8% |
| HISPANIC |
Cuban |
Non-Cuban |
|
|---|
| Hillary Clinton |
** |
60% |
| Ben Carson |
** |
36% |
| Undecided |
** |
3% |
| RACE |
White |
Black |
Asian / Other |
|
|---|
| Hillary Clinton |
39% |
77% |
46% |
| Ben Carson |
51% |
17% |
43% |
| Undecided |
9% |
6% |
11% |
| PARTY REGISTRATION |
Republican |
Democrat |
Unaffiliated |
|
|---|
| Hillary Clinton |
10% |
82% |
37% |
| Ben Carson |
82% |
12% |
44% |
| Undecided |
8% |
5% |
18% |
| AFFILIATION |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
|
|---|
| Hillary Clinton |
10% |
83% |
37% |
| Ben Carson |
82% |
12% |
46% |
| Undecided |
9% |
5% |
17% |
| IDEOLOGY |
Conservative |
Moderate |
Liberal |
|
|---|
| Hillary Clinton |
13% |
51% |
86% |
| Ben Carson |
81% |
37% |
8% |
| Undecided |
6% |
12% |
6% |
| TOP ISSUE |
Economy |
Immigration |
National Security |
Health Care |
|---|
| Hillary Clinton |
46% |
27% |
25% |
64% |
| Ben Carson |
46% |
66% |
64% |
27% |
| Undecided |
9% |
7% |
11% |
9% |
| EDUCATION |
High School |
Some College |
College Degree |
|
|---|
| Hillary Clinton |
42% |
44% |
46% |
| Ben Carson |
46% |
47% |
46% |
| Undecided |
13% |
9% |
8% |
| INCOME |
Under $40K |
$40K – $80K |
Over $80K |
|
|---|
| Hillary Clinton |
47% |
43% |
43% |
| Ben Carson |
41% |
48% |
49% |
| Undecided |
11% |
9% |
7% |
| REGION |
Northwest |
Northeast |
Central |
Southwest |
|---|
| Hillary Clinton |
36% |
39% |
41% |
43% |
| Ben Carson |
57% |
53% |
52% |
48% |
| Undecided |
7% |
8% |
8% |
9% |
| |
Southeast |
|
|---|
| Hillary Clinton |
54% |
| Ben Carson |
35% |
| Undecided |
12% |
General Election: Clinton vs. Bush
Q: What if it were Hillary Clinton and Republican Jeb Bush?
| ALL |
TOTAL |
|
|---|
| Hillary Clinton |
46% |
| Jeb Bush |
44% |
| Undecided |
10% |
| GENDER |
Male |
Female |
|
|---|
| Hillary Clinton |
43% |
49% |
| Jeb Bush |
46% |
41% |
| Undecided |
11% |
10% |
| AGE GROUP |
18–34 |
35–49 |
50–64 |
65+ |
|---|
| Hillary Clinton |
52% |
48% |
44% |
43% |
| Jeb Bush |
35% |
40% |
45% |
48% |
| Undecided |
13% |
11% |
11% |
8% |
| |
Under 50 |
50+ |
|
|---|
| Hillary Clinton |
50% |
44% |
| Jeb Bush |
39% |
46% |
| Undecided |
12% |
10% |
| HISPANIC |
Cuban |
Non-Cuban |
|
|---|
| Hillary Clinton |
** |
56% |
| Jeb Bush |
** |
34% |
| Undecided |
** |
10% |
| RACE |
White |
Black |
Asian / Other |
|
|---|
| Hillary Clinton |
40% |
82% |
50% |
| Jeb Bush |
49% |
13% |
36% |
| Undecided |
11% |
6% |
14% |
| PARTY REGISTRATION |
Republican |
Democrat |
Unaffiliated |
|
|---|
| Hillary Clinton |
12% |
84% |
38% |
| Jeb Bush |
77% |
10% |
42% |
| Undecided |
11% |
5% |
20% |
| AFFILIATION |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
|
|---|
| Hillary Clinton |
12% |
85% |
37% |
| Jeb Bush |
77% |
10% |
43% |
| Undecided |
11% |
5% |
19% |
| IDEOLOGY |
Conservative |
Moderate |
Liberal |
|
|---|
| Hillary Clinton |
15% |
51% |
89% |
| Jeb Bush |
74% |
37% |
6% |
| Undecided |
11% |
12% |
5% |
| TOP ISSUE |
Economy |
Immigration |
National Security |
Health Care |
|---|
| Hillary Clinton |
48% |
29% |
24% |
64% |
| Jeb Bush |
42% |
59% |
64% |
30% |
| Undecided |
10% |
12% |
12% |
6% |
| EDUCATION |
High School |
Some College |
College Degree |
|
|---|
| Hillary Clinton |
42% |
43% |
49% |
| Jeb Bush |
48% |
45% |
41% |
| Undecided |
11% |
12% |
9% |
| INCOME |
Under $40K |
$40K – $80K |
Over $80K |
|
|---|
| Hillary Clinton |
50% |
45% |
44% |
| Jeb Bush |
39% |
45% |
47% |
| Undecided |
12% |
10% |
9% |
| REGION |
Northwest |
Northeast |
Central |
Southwest |
|---|
| Hillary Clinton |
38% |
41% |
41% |
45% |
| Jeb Bush |
51% |
52% |
48% |
44% |
| Undecided |
11% |
7% |
11% |
11% |
| |
Southeast |
|
|---|
| Hillary Clinton |
55% |
| Jeb Bush |
34% |
| Undecided |
11% |
General Election: Clinton vs. Rubio
Q: What if it were Hillary Clinton and Republican Marco Rubio?
| ALL |
TOTAL |
|
|---|
| Hillary Clinton |
46% |
| Marco Rubio |
45% |
| Undecided |
8% |
| GENDER |
Male |
Female |
|
|---|
| Hillary Clinton |
44% |
49% |
| Marco Rubio |
49% |
42% |
| Undecided |
8% |
9% |
| AGE GROUP |
18–34 |
35–49 |
50–64 |
65+ |
|---|
| Hillary Clinton |
48% |
50% |
46% |
43% |
| Marco Rubio |
39% |
40% |
46% |
51% |
| Undecided |
13% |
10% |
8% |
5% |
| |
Under 50 |
50+ |
|
|---|
| Hillary Clinton |
50% |
45% |
| Marco Rubio |
39% |
49% |
| Undecided |
11% |
7% |
| HISPANIC |
Cuban |
Non-Cuban |
|
|---|
| Hillary Clinton |
** |
64% |
| Marco Rubio |
** |
28% |
| Undecided |
** |
7% |
| RACE |
White |
Black |
Asian / Other |
|
|---|
| Hillary Clinton |
41% |
82% |
54% |
| Marco Rubio |
51% |
13% |
36% |
| Undecided |
9% |
5% |
10% |
| PARTY REGISTRATION |
Republican |
Democrat |
Unaffiliated |
|
|---|
| Hillary Clinton |
12% |
85% |
38% |
| Marco Rubio |
81% |
10% |
45% |
| Undecided |
7% |
5% |
17% |
| AFFILIATION |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
|
|---|
| Hillary Clinton |
12% |
85% |
38% |
| Marco Rubio |
81% |
10% |
45% |
| Undecided |
7% |
5% |
17% |
| IDEOLOGY |
Conservative |
Moderate |
Liberal |
|
|---|
| Hillary Clinton |
15% |
52% |
88% |
| Marco Rubio |
78% |
37% |
7% |
| Undecided |
7% |
11% |
5% |
| TOP ISSUE |
Economy |
Immigration |
National Security |
Health Care |
|---|
| Hillary Clinton |
47% |
32% |
24% |
68% |
| Marco Rubio |
46% |
61% |
65% |
24% |
| Undecided |
7% |
7% |
11% |
8% |
| EDUCATION |
High School |
Some College |
College Degree |
|
|---|
| Hillary Clinton |
44% |
44% |
49% |
| Marco Rubio |
44% |
47% |
44% |
| Undecided |
12% |
9% |
6% |
| INCOME |
Under $40K |
$40K – $80K |
Over $80K |
|
|---|
| Hillary Clinton |
50% |
45% |
44% |
| Marco Rubio |
39% |
46% |
50% |
| Undecided |
10% |
9% |
6% |
| REGION |
Northwest |
Northeast |
Central |
Southwest |
|---|
| Hillary Clinton |
36% |
39% |
43% |
45% |
| Marco Rubio |
55% |
54% |
48% |
48% |
| Undecided |
8% |
7% |
9% |
8% |
| |
Southeast |
|
|---|
| Hillary Clinton |
56% |
| Marco Rubio |
35% |
| Undecided |
9% |
General Election: Clinton vs. Fiorina
Q: What if it were Hillary Clinton and Republican Carly Fiorina?
| ALL |
TOTAL |
|
|---|
| Hillary Clinton |
48% |
| Carly Fiorina |
42% |
| Undecided |
10% |
| GENDER |
Male |
Female |
|
|---|
| Hillary Clinton |
45% |
51% |
| Carly Fiorina |
47% |
38% |
| Undecided |
8% |
12% |
| AGE GROUP |
18–34 |
35–49 |
50–64 |
65+ |
|---|
| Hillary Clinton |
52% |
52% |
47% |
45% |
| Carly Fiorina |
35% |
36% |
44% |
47% |
| Undecided |
13% |
12% |
9% |
8% |
| |
Under 50 |
50+ |
|
|---|
| Hillary Clinton |
52% |
46% |
| Carly Fiorina |
36% |
46% |
| Undecided |
12% |
9% |
| HISPANIC |
Cuban |
Non-Cuban |
|
|---|
| Hillary Clinton |
** |
65% |
| Carly Fiorina |
** |
27% |
| Undecided |
** |
7% |
| RACE |
White |
Black |
Asian / Other |
|
|---|
| Hillary Clinton |
42% |
83% |
53% |
| Carly Fiorina |
47% |
13% |
36% |
| Undecided |
11% |
4% |
11% |
| PARTY REGISTRATION |
Republican |
Democrat |
Unaffiliated |
|
|---|
| Hillary Clinton |
15% |
85% |
41% |
| Carly Fiorina |
76% |
9% |
40% |
| Undecided |
10% |
6% |
19% |
| AFFILIATION |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
|
|---|
| Hillary Clinton |
15% |
85% |
39% |
| Carly Fiorina |
76% |
9% |
43% |
| Undecided |
9% |
6% |
18% |
| IDEOLOGY |
Conservative |
Moderate |
Liberal |
|
|---|
| Hillary Clinton |
18% |
54% |
89% |
| Carly Fiorina |
74% |
34% |
6% |
| Undecided |
8% |
13% |
5% |
| TOP ISSUE |
Economy |
Immigration |
National Security |
Health Care |
|---|
| Hillary Clinton |
48% |
32% |
29% |
69% |
| Carly Fiorina |
43% |
58% |
60% |
20% |
| Undecided |
9% |
10% |
12% |
11% |
| EDUCATION |
High School |
Some College |
College Degree |
|
|---|
| Hillary Clinton |
45% |
46% |
50% |
| Carly Fiorina |
41% |
43% |
42% |
| Undecided |
14% |
11% |
8% |
| INCOME |
Under $40K |
$40K – $80K |
Over $80K |
|
|---|
| Hillary Clinton |
52% |
46% |
46% |
| Carly Fiorina |
36% |
44% |
47% |
| Undecided |
12% |
10% |
8% |
| REGION |
Northwest |
Northeast |
Central |
Southwest |
|---|
| Hillary Clinton |
36% |
44% |
44% |
46% |
| Carly Fiorina |
52% |
48% |
46% |
45% |
| Undecided |
11% |
8% |
10% |
9% |
| |
Southeast |
|
|---|
| Hillary Clinton |
58% |
| Carly Fiorina |
31% |
| Undecided |
11% |
General Election: Sanders vs. Trump
Q: If the general election for president were today and the candidates were Democrat Bernie Sanders and Republican Donald Trump, who would you vote for?
| ALL |
TOTAL |
|
|---|
| Bernie Sanders |
41% |
| Donald Trump |
50% |
| Undecided |
9% |
| GENDER |
Male |
Female |
|
|---|
| Bernie Sanders |
38% |
44% |
| Donald Trump |
55% |
44% |
| Undecided |
7% |
12% |
| AGE GROUP |
18–34 |
35–49 |
50–64 |
65+ |
|---|
| Bernie Sanders |
50% |
40% |
41% |
38% |
| Donald Trump |
41% |
48% |
50% |
54% |
| Undecided |
9% |
12% |
8% |
9% |
| |
Under 50 |
50+ |
|
|---|
| Bernie Sanders |
44% |
40% |
| Donald Trump |
45% |
52% |
| Undecided |
11% |
8% |
| HISPANIC |
Cuban |
Non-Cuban |
|
|---|
| Bernie Sanders |
** |
44% |
| Donald Trump |
** |
43% |
| Undecided |
** |
13% |
| RACE |
White |
Black |
Asian / Other |
|
|---|
| Bernie Sanders |
37% |
74% |
36% |
| Donald Trump |
55% |
17% |
45% |
| Undecided |
9% |
8% |
18% |
| PARTY REGISTRATION |
Republican |
Democrat |
Unaffiliated |
|
|---|
| Bernie Sanders |
11% |
74% |
38% |
| Donald Trump |
82% |
18% |
48% |
| Undecided |
7% |
8% |
15% |
| AFFILIATION |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
|
|---|
| Bernie Sanders |
10% |
75% |
36% |
| Donald Trump |
83% |
17% |
48% |
| Undecided |
7% |
8% |
16% |
| IDEOLOGY |
Conservative |
Moderate |
Liberal |
|
|---|
| Bernie Sanders |
14% |
46% |
81% |
| Donald Trump |
80% |
41% |
12% |
| Undecided |
6% |
13% |
7% |
| TOP ISSUE |
Economy |
Immigration |
National Security |
Health Care |
|---|
| Bernie Sanders |
43% |
22% |
22% |
60% |
| Donald Trump |
48% |
73% |
66% |
34% |
| Undecided |
10% |
5% |
12% |
7% |
| EDUCATION |
High School |
Some College |
College Degree |
|
|---|
| Bernie Sanders |
39% |
40% |
43% |
| Donald Trump |
48% |
50% |
49% |
| Undecided |
13% |
10% |
8% |
| INCOME |
Under $40K |
$40K – $80K |
Over $80K |
|
|---|
| Bernie Sanders |
46% |
39% |
39% |
| Donald Trump |
44% |
51% |
54% |
| Undecided |
10% |
10% |
8% |
| REGION |
Northwest |
Northeast |
Central |
Southwest |
|---|
| Bernie Sanders |
36% |
43% |
35% |
42% |
| Donald Trump |
56% |
51% |
57% |
49% |
| Undecided |
9% |
6% |
8% |
10% |
| |
Southeast |
|
|---|
| Bernie Sanders |
48% |
| Donald Trump |
40% |
| Undecided |
12% |
General Election: Sanders vs. Carson
Q: What if it were Bernie Sanders and Republican Ben Carson?
| ALL |
TOTAL |
|
|---|
| Bernie Sanders |
40% |
| Ben Carson |
48% |
| Undecided |
12% |
| GENDER |
Male |
Female |
|
|---|
| Bernie Sanders |
38% |
43% |
| Ben Carson |
52% |
45% |
| Undecided |
10% |
13% |
| AGE GROUP |
18–34 |
35–49 |
50–64 |
65+ |
|---|
| Bernie Sanders |
48% |
38% |
41% |
37% |
| Ben Carson |
41% |
46% |
48% |
53% |
| Undecided |
11% |
16% |
11% |
9% |
| |
Under 50 |
50+ |
|
|---|
| Bernie Sanders |
42% |
39% |
| Ben Carson |
44% |
51% |
| Undecided |
14% |
10% |
| HISPANIC |
Cuban |
Non-Cuban |
|
|---|
| Bernie Sanders |
** |
42% |
| Ben Carson |
** |
42% |
| Undecided |
** |
16% |
| RACE |
White |
Black |
Asian / Other |
|
|---|
| Bernie Sanders |
37% |
67% |
30% |
| Ben Carson |
52% |
24% |
50% |
| Undecided |
11% |
8% |
20% |
| PARTY REGISTRATION |
Republican |
Democrat |
Unaffiliated |
|
|---|
| Bernie Sanders |
9% |
75% |
34% |
| Ben Carson |
83% |
15% |
46% |
| Undecided |
9% |
10% |
20% |
| AFFILIATION |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
|
|---|
| Bernie Sanders |
9% |
75% |
32% |
| Ben Carson |
83% |
15% |
46% |
| Undecided |
8% |
10% |
22% |
| IDEOLOGY |
Conservative |
Moderate |
Liberal |
|
|---|
| Bernie Sanders |
12% |
44% |
82% |
| Ben Carson |
80% |
41% |
10% |
| Undecided |
7% |
15% |
9% |
| TOP ISSUE |
Economy |
Immigration |
National Security |
Health Care |
|---|
| Bernie Sanders |
42% |
21% |
20% |
55% |
| Ben Carson |
47% |
69% |
67% |
31% |
| Undecided |
11% |
10% |
13% |
14% |
| EDUCATION |
High School |
Some College |
College Degree |
|
|---|
| Bernie Sanders |
34% |
39% |
43% |
| Ben Carson |
47% |
48% |
48% |
| Undecided |
19% |
12% |
9% |
| INCOME |
Under $40K |
$40K – $80K |
Over $80K |
|
|---|
| Bernie Sanders |
44% |
38% |
39% |
| Ben Carson |
42% |
50% |
53% |
| Undecided |
14% |
12% |
8% |
| REGION |
Northwest |
Northeast |
Central |
Southwest |
|---|
| Bernie Sanders |
32% |
39% |
36% |
42% |
| Ben Carson |
59% |
52% |
53% |
49% |
| Undecided |
9% |
9% |
12% |
10% |
| |
Southeast |
|
|---|
| Bernie Sanders |
47% |
| Ben Carson |
39% |
| Undecided |
15% |
General Election: Sanders vs. Bush
Q: What if it were Bernie Sanders and Republican Jeb Bush?
| ALL |
TOTAL |
|
|---|
| Bernie Sanders |
44% |
| Jeb Bush |
46% |
| Undecided |
10% |
| GENDER |
Male |
Female |
|
|---|
| Bernie Sanders |
42% |
45% |
| Jeb Bush |
49% |
43% |
| Undecided |
9% |
12% |
| AGE GROUP |
18–34 |
35–49 |
50–64 |
65+ |
|---|
| Bernie Sanders |
54% |
43% |
43% |
40% |
| Jeb Bush |
38% |
45% |
46% |
51% |
| Undecided |
8% |
12% |
12% |
9% |
| |
Under 50 |
50+ |
|
|---|
| Bernie Sanders |
47% |
42% |
| Jeb Bush |
42% |
48% |
| Undecided |
10% |
10% |
| HISPANIC |
Cuban |
Non-Cuban |
|
|---|
| Bernie Sanders |
** |
41% |
| Jeb Bush |
** |
43% |
| Undecided |
** |
17% |
| RACE |
White |
Black |
Asian / Other |
|
|---|
| Bernie Sanders |
39% |
79% |
41% |
| Jeb Bush |
51% |
16% |
41% |
| Undecided |
11% |
5% |
18% |
| PARTY REGISTRATION |
Republican |
Democrat |
Unaffiliated |
|
|---|
| Bernie Sanders |
11% |
78% |
40% |
| Jeb Bush |
79% |
14% |
44% |
| Undecided |
10% |
8% |
16% |
| AFFILIATION |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
|
|---|
| Bernie Sanders |
13% |
78% |
37% |
| Jeb Bush |
78% |
14% |
45% |
| Undecided |
9% |
8% |
18% |
| IDEOLOGY |
Conservative |
Moderate |
Liberal |
|
|---|
| Bernie Sanders |
15% |
48% |
85% |
| Jeb Bush |
77% |
40% |
8% |
| Undecided |
8% |
12% |
7% |
| TOP ISSUE |
Economy |
Immigration |
National Security |
Health Care |
|---|
| Bernie Sanders |
45% |
25% |
24% |
58% |
| Jeb Bush |
44% |
62% |
67% |
33% |
| Undecided |
10% |
13% |
9% |
9% |
| EDUCATION |
High School |
Some College |
College Degree |
|
|---|
| Bernie Sanders |
39% |
43% |
46% |
| Jeb Bush |
48% |
46% |
45% |
| Undecided |
13% |
11% |
9% |
| INCOME |
Under $40K |
$40K – $80K |
Over $80K |
|
|---|
| Bernie Sanders |
48% |
43% |
41% |
| Jeb Bush |
42% |
46% |
51% |
| Undecided |
11% |
11% |
9% |
| REGION |
Northwest |
Northeast |
Central |
Southwest |
|---|
| Bernie Sanders |
35% |
43% |
38% |
44% |
| Jeb Bush |
57% |
48% |
51% |
46% |
| Undecided |
8% |
9% |
11% |
10% |
| |
Southeast |
|
|---|
| Bernie Sanders |
52% |
| Jeb Bush |
37% |
| Undecided |
10% |
General Election: Sanders vs. Rubio
Q: What if it were Bernie Sanders and Republican Marco Rubio?
| ALL |
TOTAL |
|
|---|
| Bernie Sanders |
44% |
| Marco Rubio |
46% |
| Undecided |
9% |
| GENDER |
Male |
Female |
|
|---|
| Bernie Sanders |
42% |
46% |
| Marco Rubio |
50% |
42% |
| Undecided |
7% |
11% |
| AGE GROUP |
18–34 |
35–49 |
50–64 |
65+ |
|---|
| Bernie Sanders |
51% |
46% |
44% |
41% |
| Marco Rubio |
38% |
42% |
47% |
52% |
| Undecided |
11% |
12% |
9% |
7% |
| |
Under 50 |
50+ |
|
|---|
| Bernie Sanders |
48% |
42% |
| Marco Rubio |
40% |
49% |
| Undecided |
12% |
8% |
| HISPANIC |
Cuban |
Non-Cuban |
|
|---|
| Bernie Sanders |
** |
46% |
| Marco Rubio |
** |
37% |
| Undecided |
** |
17% |
| RACE |
White |
Black |
Asian / Other |
|
|---|
| Bernie Sanders |
40% |
78% |
42% |
| Marco Rubio |
51% |
17% |
41% |
| Undecided |
9% |
5% |
18% |
| PARTY REGISTRATION |
Republican |
Democrat |
Unaffiliated |
|
|---|
| Bernie Sanders |
11% |
81% |
40% |
| Marco Rubio |
80% |
13% |
44% |
| Undecided |
8% |
7% |
15% |
| AFFILIATION |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
|
|---|
| Bernie Sanders |
11% |
81% |
39% |
| Marco Rubio |
81% |
12% |
44% |
| Undecided |
8% |
7% |
17% |
| IDEOLOGY |
Conservative |
Moderate |
Liberal |
|
|---|
| Bernie Sanders |
15% |
50% |
85% |
| Marco Rubio |
79% |
38% |
8% |
| Undecided |
6% |
12% |
7% |
| TOP ISSUE |
Economy |
Immigration |
National Security |
Health Care |
|---|
| Bernie Sanders |
46% |
26% |
24% |
62% |
| Marco Rubio |
45% |
63% |
66% |
25% |
| Undecided |
8% |
10% |
10% |
12% |
| EDUCATION |
High School |
Some College |
College Degree |
|
|---|
| Bernie Sanders |
41% |
44% |
46% |
| Marco Rubio |
44% |
46% |
47% |
| Undecided |
15% |
10% |
7% |
| INCOME |
Under $40K |
$40K – $80K |
Over $80K |
|
|---|
| Bernie Sanders |
49% |
43% |
41% |
| Marco Rubio |
40% |
47% |
52% |
| Undecided |
11% |
10% |
6% |
| REGION |
Northwest |
Northeast |
Central |
Southwest |
|---|
| Bernie Sanders |
34% |
44% |
40% |
43% |
| Marco Rubio |
57% |
50% |
51% |
48% |
| Undecided |
9% |
6% |
9% |
9% |
| |
Southeast |
|
|---|
| Bernie Sanders |
53% |
| Marco Rubio |
35% |
| Undecided |
11% |
General Election: Sanders vs. Fiorina
Q: What if it were Bernie Sanders and Republican Carly Fiorina?
| ALL |
TOTAL |
|
|---|
| Bernie Sanders |
46% |
| Carly Fiorina |
43% |
| Undecided |
12% |
| GENDER |
Male |
Female |
|
|---|
| Bernie Sanders |
43% |
48% |
| Carly Fiorina |
47% |
38% |
| Undecided |
9% |
14% |
| AGE GROUP |
18–34 |
35–49 |
50–64 |
65+ |
|---|
| Bernie Sanders |
56% |
48% |
44% |
41% |
| Carly Fiorina |
33% |
38% |
45% |
48% |
| Undecided |
11% |
14% |
11% |
10% |
| |
Under 50 |
50+ |
|
|---|
| Bernie Sanders |
51% |
42% |
| Carly Fiorina |
36% |
47% |
| Undecided |
13% |
11% |
| HISPANIC |
Cuban |
Non-Cuban |
|
|---|
| Bernie Sanders |
** |
52% |
| Carly Fiorina |
** |
31% |
| Undecided |
** |
17% |
| RACE |
White |
Black |
Asian / Other |
|
|---|
| Bernie Sanders |
41% |
77% |
47% |
| Carly Fiorina |
47% |
16% |
36% |
| Undecided |
12% |
6% |
17% |
| PARTY REGISTRATION |
Republican |
Democrat |
Unaffiliated |
|
|---|
| Bernie Sanders |
13% |
81% |
43% |
| Carly Fiorina |
76% |
11% |
40% |
| Undecided |
11% |
9% |
18% |
| AFFILIATION |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
|
|---|
| Bernie Sanders |
14% |
81% |
38% |
| Carly Fiorina |
76% |
10% |
42% |
| Undecided |
10% |
9% |
20% |
| IDEOLOGY |
Conservative |
Moderate |
Liberal |
|
|---|
| Bernie Sanders |
18% |
51% |
85% |
| Carly Fiorina |
74% |
35% |
7% |
| Undecided |
8% |
15% |
8% |
| TOP ISSUE |
Economy |
Immigration |
National Security |
Health Care |
|---|
| Bernie Sanders |
46% |
28% |
26% |
65% |
| Carly Fiorina |
43% |
61% |
62% |
21% |
| Undecided |
11% |
12% |
12% |
14% |
| EDUCATION |
High School |
Some College |
College Degree |
|
|---|
| Bernie Sanders |
39% |
46% |
48% |
| Carly Fiorina |
43% |
41% |
44% |
| Undecided |
18% |
13% |
8% |
| INCOME |
Under $40K |
$40K – $80K |
Over $80K |
|
|---|
| Bernie Sanders |
49% |
45% |
44% |
| Carly Fiorina |
36% |
44% |
49% |
| Undecided |
16% |
11% |
7% |
| REGION |
Northwest |
Northeast |
Central |
Southwest |
|---|
| Bernie Sanders |
36% |
47% |
40% |
45% |
| Carly Fiorina |
54% |
44% |
48% |
46% |
| Undecided |
10% |
9% |
12% |
9% |
| |
Southeast |
|
|---|
| Bernie Sanders |
55% |
| Carly Fiorina |
32% |
| Undecided |
14% |
About the Poll
The poll was conducted Wednesday, Oct. 28 – Sunday, Nov. 1, 2015 by SurveyUSA for Bay News 9 and News 13.
3,000 state of Florida adults were interviewed. Of the adults, 2,712 were registered to vote in the state of Florida. Of the registered voters, 2,400 were determined to be likely to vote in the Nov. 8, 2016 general election. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA determined that 922 were likely to vote in the Republican primary, and 826 were likely to vote in the Democratic primary, both on March 15, 2016.
This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode: respondents reachable on their home telephone (69% of registered voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (31% of registered voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Barack Obama carried Florida (the state was "blue") in both 2008 and 2012.
NOTE: Figures may not sum to 100 percent due to rounding.
