Note: This story was last updated at 11:15 p.m. Thursday:
A weak broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is moving due west at 15-20 mph — more toward Cuba than toward the Bahamas.
The formation potential for the storm has dropped slightly, according to the latest models. Our meteorologists describe the storm as "extremely discombobulated."
- The tropical wave still lacks organization
- The system could become Hermine
- Path, intensity of the wave still unclear
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The system still lacks closed circulation, and the winds associated with the system have decreased.
If the system survives a few more days, conditions could become more favorable for a development just south of Florida or in the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday or Monday.
However, with the very weak state of the system right now, it may dissipate or be just a weak low around Florida.
The wave hasn’t strengthened and is just a low-level swirl, so it is moving faster to the west than to the northwest.
It is not currently where any model had forecast it to be at this point. If this trend continues, it will head into Cuba or well south of Florida.
Gaston became a hurricane during the overnight hours Wednesday into Thursday. It was downgraded to a tropical storm as of the 5 p.m. Thursday update. Gaston could possibly strengthen back into a hurricane over the weekend. This system poses no threat to land.
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