Although the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season is off to a slow start, conditions may favor an uptick in development for the second half of the season.
- NOAA says the second half of the Atlantic hurricane season could be busy
- NOAA's predictions call for the busiest hurricane season since 2012
- So far, we've had 5 named storms this season
- Visit our Hurricane Center
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on Thursday increased its forecast numbers for the rest of the season. The agency upped the named storms from 10-16 to 12-17, hurricanes from 4-8 to 5-8 and major hurricanes from 1-4 to 2-4.
The prediction would make this season the strongest season since 2012, NOAA says.
Now that El Niño has pretty much dissipated, wind shear has weakened and could allow storms to form and grow without being suppressed. Trade winds are also weaker, and with an enhanced African monsoon in place, waves coming across the Atlantic Ocean have a better chance of surviving.
Warmer sea surface temperatures and deep tropical moisture feeding into the atmosphere are also players in what could be a more active season ahead.
There is one large caveat, though: A very busy start to the eastern Pacific season may very well play an important role in our season, creating a bit more wind shear and sinking motion in the atmosphere over the western Atlantic, similar to conditions in an El Niño year.
A player not showing its card yet? La Niña. The forecast for a weak La Niña is still in question because it hasn't even started to develop. Without a La Niña, we may once again polish off a fairly quiet hurricane season.
News 13's weather experts want you to stay aware of the tropical situation and tune in at :51 past every hour for the latest tropical updates. Remember, it only takes one storm to cause serious problems. The forecast above doesn't matter. If you get hit, then it is a busy year for you.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs June 1 through Nov. 30, with the peak of the season on Sept. 10.