Here's what you need to know about Tropical Storm Erika:

  • Location at 11 p.m. Thursday: 16.6 N, 65.3 W
  • How far is it?
    • 85 mi. SSW of St. Croix
    • 135 mi. SSE of San Juan, Puerto Rico
    • 1,182 mi. ESE of Miami
    • 1,289 mi. SE of Melbourne
    • 1,334 mi. SE of Orlando
    • 1,352 mi. SE of Daytona Beach
  • Winds: 45 mph
  • Movement: W at 17 mph
  • Pressure: 1,008 mb / 29.77 inches
  • Jump to: Interactive Tracking Map ▼

Erika continues to show signs of struggle, and the next 36 hours or so are critical in the evolution of our tropical storm. We've been waiting on a west-northwest turn.

The cone of uncertainty has shifted slightly back toward the west. This puts a possible landfall on the east coast of Florida sometime Monday and into Tuesday, but unusual high uncertainty continues for three to five days out.

Several factors are now playing a role in the evolution of Erika. In the near term, the center of circulation is displaced from thunderstorm activity. As the center opens up, the storm becomes weaker.

Erika is also encountering some strong wind shear aloft, and this is forecast to continue for the next few days. If Erika can survive the wind shear, land interaction with Puerto Rico and higher terrain of the Dominican Republic, it could rapidly strengthen over the Bahamas. Water temperatures are considerably warmer near the Bahama island chain, and wind shear is lower between Florida and the Turks and Caicos.

This is also an area where steering winds would be able to turn the tropical storm more north or north-northwest, putting the center of circulation very close to the Florida coastline. There's plenty for Erika to overcome, but if it survives, we could have a direct impact on Central Florida, especially along the east coast.

Area counties are preparing for the storm in any event. Many of the counties have activated their emergency operations centers and are monitoring the storm.

Orange and Volusia counties have both set up sandbagging locations.

ORANGE COUNTY

  • Friday and Saturday, 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. at eight Public Works locations
    • Apopka - 3258 Clarcona Road
    • Bithlo - 18753 Old Cheney Highway
    • John Young - 4200 S. John Young Parkway
    • Taft -- 11442 Intermodal Way
    • Three Points -- 4737 S. Goldenrod Road
    • West Orange -- 644 Beulah Road
    • Zellwood -- 3400 Golden Gem Road
    • Goldenrod -- 2530 N. Forsyth Road

VOLUSIA COUNTY

  • Friday and through the weekend, 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. at four Public Works locations. Residents should bring shovels and be prepared to fill their own bags.
    • New Smyrna Beach - 530 N. Dixie Freeway
    • Holly Hill - 455 Walker St.
    • DeLand - 2560 W. State Road 44
    • Osteen - 200 State Road 415

See Wednesday's latest advisory for Erika ▼


Interactive Hurricane Tracker


Tropical Storm Erika Advisory

11 p.m. — Tropical storm force winds affecting the U.S. Virgin Islands and approaching Puerto Rico.

Watches and Warnings

Changes with this advisory:

  • None.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect:
A tropical storm warning is in effect for…

  • St. Martin
  • St. Barthelemy
  • Puerto Rico
  • Vieques
  • Culebra
  • U.S. Virgin Islands
  • British Virgin Islands
  • Dominican Republic from the northern border with Haiti eastward and southward to Isla Saona
  • Southeastern Bahamas
  • Turks and Caicos Islands

A tropical storm watch is in effect for:

  • Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Punta Palenque
  • Central Bahamas

Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic and in Haiti should monitor the progress of Erika.

Discussion and 48-hour outlook

At 11 p.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Erika was located near latitude 16.6 north, longitude 65.3 west.

Erika moving westward near 17 mph. A turn to the west-northwest is anticipated on Friday, and this general motion is expected to continue through Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Erika will move near Puerto Rico during the next several hours and move near or over the Dominican Republic on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph, with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles primarily to the southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1,008 mb (29.77 inches).

Hazards affecting land

Wind: Tropical storm conditions are affecting the Virgin Islands and will spread across Puerto Rico during the next several hours. These conditions should spread westward across portions of the Dominican Republic on Friday, and the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands late Friday.

Rainfall: Erika is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches possible across portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas through Saturday. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

Next Advisory
Next complete advisory at 5 a.m.

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