A disturbance in the central Atlantic has a high chance of forming into our next tropical system.

The system has an 80 percent chance of developing into a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours. The probability increases to 90 percent over the next five days.

Invest 96L remains poorly organized as it slowly moves away from the Dominican Republic to the west-northwest around 12 mph.

The NOAA hurricane hunters went out to investigate and didn't find any closed low. However, because it will move over open water with sea surface temperatures between 85 and 87 degrees, organization is expected within 24 hours.

Latest forecast models continue to track the system to the northwest, with most of it curving over the east side of the Bahamas and remaining well away from Florida. A few models have the system moving into Florida, though.

Some uncertainty exists because of the broad area of high pressure that extends from the mid-Atlantic into the Gulf of Mexico. Since there is a weakness in the middle of this high over the Bahamas to the Turks and Caicos Islands, the more likely path would be in that direction. If the high pressure gets stronger over the next 48 hours, it would tend to steer the system more west before a turn to the north.

Another reconnaissance plane is scheduled to investigate the system Saturday afternoon. The system would be named Cristobal if it develops.

HOW DO THE MODELS WORK?

When a tropical wave becomes of 'special interest' to the National Hurricane Center, future projection models start to run on the wave. The models are called 'guidance' because they act as a guide on forecast path, intensity, direction, speed, as well as other parameters. A probability is then calculated on it organizing into a tropical depression within 48 hours and 120 hours.

Essentially, these forecast tracks run by dozens of models are used to help determine whether this tropical wave will intensify and where it is most likely to go. Forecasters look for consistency in the models, as in a more likely path based on the consensus of the model tracks.

When a center of circulation is found, it may be classified as a tropical depression should peak winds remain less than 38 mph. If the storm is capable of winds over 39 mph, it will be considered a tropical storm and given the name Cristobal.

See the latest models on our Tropical page.