For months, President Barack Obama and Republican rival Mitt Romney have paid special attention to courting voters in Florida, considered by many as the key to winning the White House.

Now, a newly released News 13 Florida Decides Exclusive Poll shows more than half of voters statewide are choosing Romney, who holds a 6-point lead over the president with just a handful of days before the election.

Of the 800 registered Florida voters polled, 51 percent said they were voting for Romney, while 45 percent picked Obama. The remaining 4 percent said they were still undecided, even with less than a week left to make up their minds.

The latest results, released late Friday, showed very little change from our previous statewide Florida Decides Poll released Oct. 11.

But that, in itself, is a significant change, as the October poll showed a dramatic shift in Mitt Romney's favor following the first one-on-one presidential debate between the two candidates.

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Early, absentee voters favor Romney

Voters in Friday's poll were also asked if they were casting their vote by absentee ballot, during Early Voting or on Election Day.

Mitt Romney had the edge in all three categories, but the highest support among absentee voters, among whom he led President Obama 53–45 percent. Two percent of voters who said they're using an absentee ballot still have yet to fill in that first bubble.

Among those who said they were voting early -- or already have, half said they backed Romney. But the margin was the slimmest here; 47 percent favored Obama, and only 3 percent said they were still undecided.

That leaves those who said they're waiting until Election Day to cast their ballot. Again, half said they planned to vote for Romney, while just 44 percent said they were voting for Obama. Six percent of Election Day voters said they still aren't sure who's getting their vote, which may be why they're waiting until Tuesday to head to the polls.

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Breaking down the numbers

Though Mitt Romney's overall lead in Florida shrank by one percentage point from October to the latest Florida Decides Poll, the last before Election Day, there were no major shifts of significance.

The only difference overall was that 1 percent of voters in the earlier poll said they were voting for a third-party ticket. This time around, that 1 percent went to President Obama.

However, the poll's demographic breakdowns showed the numbers have tightened among independent voters, those who will ultimately decide who wins Florida.

In October, Romney had a clear lead among independents, 52 percent to only 39 percent who favored Obama.

Now, that lead has dropped by more than half, with 49 percent of independents favoring Romney, and 43 percent backing Obama.

The number of undecided independent voters also increased from 6 to 8 percent.

Breaking it down by region, Romney's lead in Central Florida rose 2 points; he now leads the president 53–45 percent, with 2 percent of Central Floridians still undecided.

In the Tampa Bay area, Romney's lead was cut in half, down from 8 points to four. He now tops Obama 51–47 percent. Two percent of voters were undecided, down from 3 percent in October.

Romney's lead widened most in North Florida, where he is now up 25 points over the president, 60–35 percent. Five percent of North Florida voters said they were undecided.

The former Massachusetts governor also has a 19-point lead in Southwest Florida. This is GOP Senate candidate Connie Mack IV's territory; he's from Fort Myers. Voters there favored Romney over President Obama 57–38 percent, with 5 percent undecided.

Obama's only regional lead was in Southeast Florida, where 54 percent of voters said they would re-elect him. Romney got just 40 percent support in that region, down from 42 percent in October. Six percent of Southeast Florida voters now say they are undecided; that's double the number of people who said the same just three weeks ago.

President Obama also gained some support among men, though Romney was still favored by 56 percent of male voters. The mindset among women voters remained unchanged: Obama held a 2-point lead, 49–47 percent.

There was a noticeable shift among Hispanic voters, who now favor Obama, 48–43 percent. In October, Romney held a 46–44 percent edge. Nine percent of Hispanics still remain undecided, the most of any demographic.

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Obama losing favor in Florida

When asked if they approve or disapprove of Barack Obama's job performance as president, the numbers remained largely unchanged since three weeks ago. Most Floridians, 54 percent, still say they disapprove.

But in Friday's poll, 1 percent went from approving the president's performance to saying they're not sure. Now, Obama's approval rating in Florida is down to 43 percent.

The president's approval rating held steady in Tampa Bay, at 44 percent; though it dropped 2 points in Central Florida to 38 percent.

His approval rating also notably dropped 3 points among black voters, to 88 percent; and 5 points among Democrats, to 77 percent. It did, however, increase 4 points among independent voters, to 43 percent.

More Floridians now say they trust Mitt Romney more to improve the economy, up from half to 53 percent. The same percentage also considers Romney more trustworthy to lead the nation.

"Romney is selling himself as a turn-around guy," said our polling expert, Brad Coker from Mason-Dixon, the Jacksonville company that conducted our exclusive Florida Decides Poll. "From the start, Romney was painted as 'Richie Rich.' After the first debate, Romney came across as smart and not arrogant. Obama's attempt in class warfare to try and paint Romney as wealthy and out of touch is no longer working. People now see it as Romney is smart and successful."

But Romney notably lost trust regarding Medicare. When asked whose plans were more likely to do more long-term harm, 4 percent more voters said Romney, up from 40 to 44 percent since Oct. 11.

More Floridians also believe the country is on the right track, up from 41 percent in October to 45 percent now. Whether that has to do with their belief in which candidate will win on Nov. 6, however, was not asked.

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Will results ring true on Tuesday?

So, will Romney's 6-point lead hold another few days until Election Day?

That remains to be seen, but polling expert Brad Coker said he believes this poll is an accurate preview of what will happen on Tuesday.

"I am pretty convinced Romney is going to win," said Coker. "I don't think there is going to be a recount in Florida. I think if there is a recount, it will be in Ohio, or in the Midwest."

"This is not one of Obama's strongest states versus what he has done elsewhere across the country," he added.

Coker said Obama's strategy in Florida may be the issue. The president's message to voters here has been to turn out the vote, and Coker claimed he hasn't changed his message or tailored it to Florida.

He added, however, that Florida, typically, is a bit more Republican than the rest of the country on Election Day.

"For example: [In 2008, John] McCain lost by three points in Florida, and lost by seven points nationally," Coker said.

Coker noted that Romney has gotten more of a crossover appeal, attracting more Democrats than Obama is attracting Republicans.

What counts, of course, is what voters say on Election Day, when many believe it will be Florida who will once again decide.

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Poll numbers in detail

QUESTION: Do you recognize the name ________?
(If yes) Do you have a favorable, unfavorable or neutral opinion of ________?

* (Numbers in parentheses from Oct. 11 statewide poll)

  RECOGNIZE FAVORABLE RECOGNIZE UNFAVORABLE RECOGNIZE
NEUTRAL
DON'T
RECOGNIZE
  Mitt Romney 53%     (50%) 34%     (38%) 13%     (12%) —       (—)
  Paul Ryan 49%     (48%) 35%     (35%) 15%     (14%) 1%     (3%)
  Barack Obama 42%     (45%) 49%     (49%) 9%       (6%) —       (—)
  Joe Biden 37%     (39%) 48%     (46%) 14%     (14%) 1%     (1%)

 

QUESTION: If the 2012 general election for president and vice president were held today, which one of the following tickets would get your vote?

  • The Democratic ticket of Barack Obama & Joe Biden
  • The Republican ticket of Mitt Romney & Paul Ryan
  • The Libertarian ticket of Gary Johnson & James Gray
  • One of the other party tickets

* (Numbers in parentheses from Oct. 11 statewide poll)

  OBAMA
ROMNEY
UNDECIDED
STATE
45%     (44%)
51%     (51%) 4%     (4%)
REGION
OBAMA
ROMNEY
UNDECIDED
  North Florida
35%     (38%)
60%     (59%) 5%     (3%)
  Central Florida
45%     (46%) 53%     (52%) 2%     (2%)
  Tampa Bay
47%     (44%) 51%     (52%) 2%     (3%)
  Southwest Florida
38%     (37%) 57%     (59%) 5%     (4%)
  Southeast Florida
54%     (54%) 40%     (42%) 6%     (3%)
SEX
OBAMA
ROMNEY
UNDECIDED
  Men
41%     (39%) 56%     (56%) 3%     (4%)
  Women
49%     (49%) 47%     (47%) 4%     (4%)
AGE
OBAMA
ROMNEY
UNDECIDED
  18–34
54%     (53%) 41%     (40%) 5%     (7%)
  35–49
41%     (43%) 52%     (52%) 7%     (5%)
  50–64
45%     (39%) 52%     (54%) 3%     (6%)
  65+
45%     (45%) 53%     (52%) 2%     (2%)
RACE
OBAMA
ROMNEY
UNDECIDED
  White
34%     (34%) 62%     (61%) 4%     (4%)
  Black
97%     (94%) 2%       (5%) 1%     (1%)
  Hispanic
48%     (44%) 43%     (46%) 9%     (10%)
PARTY
OBAMA
ROMNEY
UNDECIDED
  Democrat
80%     (82%) 16%     (14%) 4%     (4%)
  Republican
5%       (4%) 93%     (94%) 2%     (2%)
  Independent
43%     (39%) 49%     (52%) 8%     (6%)
HOW VOTING
OBAMA ROMNEY
UNDECIDED
  Absentee
45%
53%
2%
  Early Voting
47%
50%
3%
  Election Day
44%
50%
6%

 

QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of Barack Obama's job performance as president?
* (Numbers in parentheses from Oct. 11 statewide poll)

  APPROVE
DISAPPROVE
NOT SURE
STATE
43%     (44%) 54%     (54%) 3%     (2%)
REGION
APPROVE
DISAPPROVE
NOT SURE
  North Florida
35%     (39%) 63%     (59%) 2%     (2%)
  Central Florida
38%     (40%) 60%     (58%) 2%     (2%)
  Tampa Bay
44%     (44%) 53%     (54%) 3%     (2%)
  Southwest Florida
37%     (35%) 58%     (64%) 5%     (1%)
  Southeast Florida
53%     (54%) 43%     (44%) 4%     (2%)
SEX
APPROVE
DISAPPROVE
NOT SURE
  Men
39%     (38%) 58%     (60%) 3%     (2%)
  Women
47%     (49%) 50%     (49%) 3%     (2%)
RACE
APPROVE
DISAPPROVE
NOT SURE
  White
32%     (34%) 66%     (65%) 2%     (2%)
  Black
88%     (91%) 7%       (6%) 5%     (3%)
  Hispanic
51%     (53%) 44%     (44%) 5%     (3%)
PARTY
APPROVE
DISAPPROVE
NOT SURE
  Democrat
77%     (82%) 19%     (16%) 4%     (2%)
  Republican
5%       (5%) 94%     (93%) 1%     (2%)
  Independent
43%     (39%) 55%     (59%) 2%     (2%)

 

QUESTION: Would you say that things in the country are on the right track or would you say they are on the wrong track?
* (Numbers in parentheses from Oct. 11 statewide poll)

  RIGHT
WRONG
NOT SURE
STATE
45%     (41%) 52%     (54%) 3%     (5%)
REGION
RIGHT
WRONG
NOT SURE
  North Florida
37%     (33%) 60%     (63%) 3%     (4%)
  Central Florida
42%     (36%) 53%     (59%) 5%     (5%)
  Tampa Bay
45%     (41%) 53%     (56%) 2%     (3%)
  Southwest Florida
40%     (36%) 56%     (59%) 4%     (5%)
  Southeast Florida
54%     (51%) 44%     (42%) 2%     (7%)
SEX
RIGHT
WRONG
NOT SURE
  Men
43%     (38%) 55%     (58%) 2%     (4%)
  Women
47%     (43%) 50%     (51%) 3%     (6%)
RACE
RIGHT
WRONG
NOT SURE
  White
39%     (34%) 59%     (63%) 2%     (3%)
  Black
78%     (78%) 13%     (12%) 9%     (10%)
  Hispanic
43%     (42%) 52%     (49%) 5%     (9%)
PARTY
RIGHT
WRONG
NOT SURE
  Democrat
77%     (74%) 19%     (20% 4%     (6%)
  Republican
9%       (6%) 90%     (91%) 1%     (3%)
  Independent
42%     (35%) 55%     (58%) 3%     (7%)

 

QUESTION: Who do you trust more to improve the economy – Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
* (Numbers in parentheses from Oct. 11 statewide poll)

  OBAMA
ROMNEY
NOT SURE
STATE
44%     (44%) 53%     (50%) 3%     (6%)
REGION
OBAMA
ROMNEY
NOT SURE
  North Florida
33%     (36%) 65%     (59%) 2%     (5%)
  Central Florida
40%     (39%) 57%     (54%) 3%     (7%)
  Tampa Bay
43%     (41%) 55%     (52%) 2%     (7%)
  Southwest Florida
42%     (39%) 57%     (56%) 1%     (5%)
  Southeast Florida
55%     (56%) 40%     (38%) 5%     (6%)
SEX
OBAMA
ROMNEY
NOT SURE
  Men
41%     (41%) 56%     (55%) 3%     (4%)
  Women
46%     (46%) 51%     (47%) 3%     (7%)
RACE
OBAMA
ROMNEY
NOT SURE
  White
35%     (37%) 63%     (58%) 2%     (5%)
  Black
90%     (84%) 5%       (11%) 5%     (5%)
  Hispanic
41%     (39%) 53%     (48%) 6%     (13%)
PARTY
OBAMA
ROMNEY
NOT SURE
  Democrat
77%     (83%) 19%     (13%) 4%     (4%)
  Republican
7%       (4%) 91%     (92%) 2%     (4%)
  Independent
42%     (39%) 42%     (54%) 3%     (7%)

 

QUESTION: Who do you trust more on foreign policy – Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
* (Numbers in parentheses from Oct. 11 statewide poll)

  OBAMA
ROMNEY
NOT SURE
STATE
47%     (46%) 49%     (49%) 4%     (5%)
REGION
OBAMA
ROMNEY
NOT SURE
  North Florida
37%     (39%) 58%     (57%) 5%     (4%)
  Central Florida
43%     (46%) 52%     (51%) 5%     (3%)
  Tampa Bay
47%     (46%) 50%     (48%) 3%     (6%)
  Southwest Florida
43%     (40%) 54%     (58%) 3%     (2%)
  Southeast Florida
58%     (53%) 38%     (40%) 4%     (7%)
SEX
OBAMA
ROMNEY
NOT SURE
  Men
44%     (39%) 53%     (58%) 3%     (3%)
  Women
50%     (52%) 45%     (42%) 5%     (6%)
RACE
OBAMA
ROMNEY
NOT SURE
  White
38%     (38%) 59%     (57%) 3%     (5%)
  Black
93%     (91%) 2%       (6%) 5%     (3%)
  Hispanic
46%     (45%) 45%     (49%) 9%     (6%)
PARTY
OBAMA
ROMNEY
NOT SURE
  Democrat
82%     (82%) 15%     (13%) 3%     (5%)
  Republican
8%       (7%) 87%     (91%) 5%     (2%)
  Independent
45%     (47%) 45%     (49%) 6%     (4%)

 

QUESTION: Who do you trust more to look out for the middle class – Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
* (Numbers in parentheses from Oct. 11 statewide poll)

  OBAMA
ROMNEY
NOT SURE
STATE
48%     (47%) 50%     (50%) 2%     (3%)
REGION
OBAMA
ROMNEY
NOT SURE
  North Florida
39%     (37%) 59%     (61%) 2%     (2%)
  Central Florida
45%     (46%) 52%     (51%) 3%     (3%)
  Tampa Bay
48%     (46%) 50%     (48%) 2%     (6%)
  Southwest Florida
42%     (40%) 56%     (56%) 2%     (4%)
  Southeast Florida
58%     (57%) 41%     (42%) 1%     (1%)
SEX
OBAMA
ROMNEY
NOT SURE
  Men
45%     (44%) 52%     (55%) 3%     (1%)
  Women
50%     (50%) 49%     (46%) 1%     (4%)
RACE
OBAMA
ROMNEY
NOT SURE
  White
38%     (38%) 61%     (60%) 1%     (2%)
  Black
97%     (94%) 1%       (2%) 2%     (4%)
  Hispanic
48%     (45%) 45%     (46%) 7%     (9%)
PARTY
OBAMA
ROMNEY
NOT SURE
  Democrat
84%     (84%) 14%     (11%) 2%     (5%)
  Republican
9%       (7%) 89%     (92%) 2%     (1%)
  Independent
47%     (44%) 51%     (51%) 2%     (5%)

 

QUESTION: Who do you consider more trustworthy to lead the nation – Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
* (Numbers in parentheses from Oct. 11 statewide poll)

  OBAMA
ROMNEY
NOT SURE
STATE
44%     (46%) 53%     (51%) 3%     (3%)
REGION
OBAMA
ROMNEY
NOT SURE
  North Florida
33%     (40%) 65%     (56%) 2%     (4%)
  Central Florida
40%     (45%) 57%     (53%) 3%     (2%)
  Tampa Bay
43%     (47%) 54%     (51%) 3%     (2%)
  Southwest Florida
42%     (39%) 56%     (56%) 2%     (5%)
  Southeast Florida
55%     (52%) 41%     (45%) 4%     (3%)
SEX
OBAMA
ROMNEY
NOT SURE
  Men
40%     (42%) 57%     (56%) 3%     (2%)
  Women
47%     (51%) 50%     (46%) 3%     (3%)
RACE
OBAMA
ROMNEY
NOT SURE
  White
34%     (37%) 64%     (60%) 2%     (3%)
  Black
95%     (93%) 2%       (3%) 3%     (4%)
  Hispanic
42%     (40%) 52%     (53%) 6%     (7%)
PARTY
OBAMA
ROMNEY
NOT SURE
  Democrat
80%     (84%) 17%     (13%) 3%     (3%)
  Republican
5%       (5%) 92%     (93%) 3%     (2%)
  Independent
43%     (42%) 53%     (54%) 4%     (4%)

 

QUESTION: Whose plans do you think are more likely to do more long term harm to Medicare – Barack Obama's or Mitt Romney's?
* (Numbers in parentheses from Oct. 11 statewide poll)

  OBAMA
ROMNEY
NOT SURE
STATE
52%     (54%) 44%     (40%) 4%     (6%)
REGION
OBAMA
ROMNEY
NOT SURE
  North Florida
57%     (60%) 38%     (36%) 5%     (4%)
  Central Florida
55%     (56%) 42%     (39%) 3%     (5%)
  Tampa Bay
55%     (58%) 43%     (37%) 2%     (5%)
  Southwest Florida
58%     (60%) 38%     (32%) 4%     (8%)
  Southeast Florida
43%     (44%) 52%     (48%) 5%     (8%)
SEX
OBAMA
ROMNEY
NOT SURE
  Men
56%     (58%) 42%     (39%) 2%     (3%)
  Women
49%     (51%) 46%     (40%) 5%     (9%)
RACE
OBAMA
ROMNEY
NOT SURE
  White
61%     (64%) 37%     (31%) 2%     (5%)
  Black
12%     (10%) 81%     (83%) 7%     (7%)
  Hispanic
47%     (47%) 43%     (41%) 10%   (12%)
PARTY
OBAMA
ROMNEY
NOT SURE
  Democrat
23%     (26%) 73%     (69%) 4%     (5%)
  Republican
85%     (86%) 12%     (7%) 3%     (7%)
  Independent
53%     (58%) 43%     (37%) 4%     (5%)

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The telephone survey of 800 registered Florida voters — all likely to vote in the November election — was conducted Oct. 30 – Nov. 1 for the Tampa Bay Times, Miami Herald, El Nuevo Herald, Bay News 9 and News 13.

The poll, which included respondents using land-lines and cell phones, was conducted by Mason-Dixon, a nonpartisan, Jacksonville-based company. The margin of error is 3.5 percentage points.