In the final stretch before the November general election, Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson's re-election could be in jeopardy.
In a News 13 Florida Decides Exclusive I-4 Corridor Poll, the incumbent senator is in a statistical dead heat with his competitor, Republican Congressman Connie Mack IV.
Nelson holds just a three point lead, 47 percent to 44 percent, among the 625 registered voters in the Tampa Bay and Central Florida area. With a 4 percent margin of error, the race is still anyone's game.
- IN DEPTH: Jump to Complete Poll Results ▼
And, with Mitt Romney surging in the polls nationally and in Florida, Mack could end up riding the coattails of his party's presidential candidate all the way to a win.
Nelson said he's working hard to keep the office he's held for years.
“I not only represent those who do vote for me," Nelson said. "I also represent those who do not vote for me and those who do not vote at all. I am not taking anything for granted. Fortunately, we are ahead and I do not take that for granted. I am running as hard as my little legs will carry me all the way through election day.”
Also hurting Nelson in this part of the state could be his allegiance to President Barack Obama and some of his controversial moves this past year.
When voters were asked if Nelson's decision to vote in favor of Obama's economic stimulus plan and health care reform law make them more or less likely to vote for Nelson, 47 percent said they're less likely to vote for him, while only 28 percent are more likely to give Nelson their vote. About a quarter of voters, 23 percent, said Nelson's voting record has no effect on their decision.
Mack's campaign manager issued the following statement:
"We always expected the I-4 corridor would be competitive. Here you have yet another poll with Senator Nelson significantly under 50 percent -- a very bad position for a two-term incumbent. It's reasonable to expect that undecided voters will break for Connie (since he is the challenger) roughly 3:2. We expect to win the I-4 corridor by 1-2 points. That means we will win the state of Florida and Connie Mack will be our next U.S. Senator."
Breaking down the numbers
Overall, Nelson seems to have slightly more support on the west side of the state, with 49 percent of Tampa Bay voters putting their support behind Nelson compared to 45 percent in Central Florida. Mack holds a one point lead in Central Florida.
For years, Nelson, a former astronaut, was closely aligned with the space program. But, when asked about Nelson's performance in protecting the space program, 31 percent of voters along the I-4 corridor gave him a poor rating and 23 percent said fair. Only 42 percent said good or excellent. In Central Florida specifically, 40 percent said he's done a poor job.
J. Brad Coker, from Mason-Dixon polling, sadi it doesn't help that the Space Coast is turning more Republican.
“They stuck with him as long as he took care of the space program now they are turning on him,” said Coker.
During a stop in Jacksonville on Friday, Nelson defended the hard work he put into supporting the space program.
“What a Republican Senator from Texas, K. Baily Hutchinson, and I passed the new roadmap for manned space exploration and in the process we saved thousands of jobs at the Kennedy Space Center. Those new rockets are now being launched from the Kennedy Space Center and the big new rocket that is going to take us to Mars, its spacecraft Orion, as we speak is being assembled in the O and the C building at the Kennedy Space Center,” Nelson said.
Voters are close on who they believe will support policies that will improve the economy and health care, but they are more divided when asked about who they think will look out for Florida's interests in Washington.
Forty-seven percent said the trust Nelson more to help the state compared to 40 percent who said Mack would do a better job.
Among the attack ads against Mack have been questions over his low attendance record and missing votes in Congress. But, luckily for him, that's not likely to have a major effect. When asked how that information influences voters, 44 percent said it has no effect while 50 percent said it makes them less likely to vote for him.
Mack's problem, said Coker, could be the lack of organization in his campaign. Coker said Mack has yet to take advantage of what some could consider a weakness for Nelson - being a lifelong politician.
"We have yet to hear the word career politician," said Coker. "He could have done to Nelson what Rubio did to Charlie Crist."
In the end, Coker said if Nelson is able to hold on to that slight lead through Nov. 6, "this will be about Mack losing it and not Nelson winning it."
Poll results in detail
QUESTION: Do you recognize the name _______________?
(If yes) Do you have a favorable, unfavorable or neutral opinion of _______________?
Recognize Favorable |
Recognize Unfavorable |
Recognize Neutral |
Don't Recognize |
|
Bill Nelson |
41% |
35% |
21% |
3% |
Connie Mack IV |
31% |
34% |
31% |
4% |
QUESTION: If the 2012 general election for Florida's U.S. Senate seat were held today, which one of the following candidates would get your vote - Bill Nelson (D), Connie Mack IV (R), Chris Borgia (Independent), Bill Gaylor (Independent)?
Bill Nelson |
Connie Mack IV |
Other | Undecided |
|
I-4 Corridor |
47% |
44% |
2% |
7% |
REGION |
Bill Nelson | Connie Mack IV | Other | Undecided |
Central Florida |
45% |
46% |
2% |
7% |
Tampa Bay |
49% |
42% |
2% |
7% |
SEX |
Bill Nelson |
Connie Mack IV |
Other |
Undecided |
Men |
41% |
49% |
2% |
8% |
Women |
51% |
40% |
2% |
7% |
AGE |
Bill Nelson | Connie Mack IV | Other | Undecided |
18-34 |
54% |
37% |
1% |
8% |
35-49 |
44% |
46% |
3% |
7% |
50-64 |
48% |
42% |
3% |
7% |
65+ |
47% |
46% |
1% |
6% |
RACE |
Bill Nelson |
Connie Mack IV |
Other |
Undecided |
White |
40% |
51% |
3% |
6% |
Black |
93% |
1% |
- |
6% |
Hispanic |
54% |
38% |
- |
8% |
PARTY |
Bill Nelson | Connie Mack IV | Not Sure | Undecided |
Democrat |
82% |
9% |
2% |
7% |
Republican |
10% |
82% |
2% |
6% |
Indpendent |
48% |
40% |
3% |
9% |
*Borgia 1%
*Gaylor 1%
QUESTION: In the Senate race, who do you feel is more likely to support policies that will improve the economy - Bill Nelson or Connie Mack?
Bill Nelson |
Connie Mack IV |
Not Sure |
|
I-4 Corridor |
46% |
42% |
12% |
REGION |
Bill Nelson | Connie Mack IV | Not Sure |
Central Florida |
42% |
45% | 13% |
Tampa Bay |
50% |
39% |
11% |
SEX |
Bill Nelson |
Connie Mack IV |
Not Sure |
Men |
43% |
46% | 11% |
Women |
49% |
39% |
12% |
RACE |
Bill Nelson |
Connie Mack IV |
Not Sure |
White |
39% |
49% |
12% |
Black |
87% |
2% |
11% |
Hispanic |
57% |
31% |
12% |
PARTY |
Bill Nelson | Connie Mack IV | Not Sure |
Democrat |
74% |
7% |
19% |
Republican |
17% |
77% |
6% |
Indpendent |
44% |
46% |
10% |
QUESTION: In the Senate race, who do you feel is more likely to support policies that will improve healthcare - Bill Nelson or Connie Mack?
Bill Nelson |
Connie Mack IV |
Not Sure |
|
I-4 Corridor |
45% |
43% |
12% |
REGION |
Bill Nelson | Connie Mack IV | Not Sure |
Central Florida |
44% |
44% |
12% |
Tampa Bay |
46% |
42% |
12% |
SEX |
Bill Nelson |
Connie Mack IV |
Not Sure |
Men |
39% |
49% |
12% |
Women |
50% |
38% |
12% |
RACE |
Bill Nelson |
Connie Mack IV |
Not Sure |
White |
37% |
51% |
12% |
Black |
87% |
2% |
11% |
Hispanic |
57% |
31% |
12% |
PARTY |
Bill Nelson | Connie Mack IV | Not Sure |
Democrat |
79% |
5% |
16% |
Republican |
11% |
81% |
8% |
Indpendent |
45% |
45% |
10% |
QUESTION: Who do you trust more to look out for Florida's interests in Washington - Bill Nelson or Connie Mack?
Bill Nelson |
Connie Mack IV |
Not Sure |
|
I-4 Corridor |
47% |
40% |
13% |
REGION |
Bill Nelson | Connie Mack IV | Not Sure |
Central Florida |
47% |
41% |
12% |
Tampa Bay |
47% |
39% |
14% |
SEX |
Bill Nelson |
Connie Mack IV |
Not Sure |
Men |
44% |
41% |
15% |
Women |
50% |
39% |
11% |
RACE |
Bill Nelson |
Connie Mack IV |
Not Sure |
White |
41% |
47% |
12% |
Black |
83% |
2% |
15% |
Hispanic |
57% |
28% |
15% |
PARTY |
Bill Nelson | Connie Mack IV | Not Sure |
Democrat |
82% |
4% |
14% |
Republican |
11% |
77% |
12% |
Indpendent |
48% |
40% |
12% |
QUESTION: Senator Bill Nelson has been criticized for voting in favor of President Barack Obama's policies, including his economic stimulus plan and healthcare reform law. Does Nelson's voting record make you more likely to vote for him, less likely to vote for him, or does it have no major effect on your vote?
More |
Less |
No Effect |
Not Sure |
|
I-4 Corridor |
28% |
47% |
23% |
2% |
REGION |
More | Less | No Effect | Not Sure |
Central Florida |
26% |
51% |
21% |
2% |
Tampa Bay |
30% |
43% |
25% |
2% |
SEX |
More |
Less |
No Effect | Not Sure |
Men |
23% |
56% |
18% |
3% |
Women |
33% |
39% |
27% |
1% |
RACE |
More |
Less |
No Effect | Not Sure |
White |
21% |
56% |
21% |
2% |
Black |
59% |
6% |
34% |
1% |
Hispanic |
47% |
27% |
23% |
3% |
PARTY |
More | Less | No Effect | Not Sure |
Democrat |
54% |
15% |
30% |
1% |
Republican |
2% |
79% |
17% |
2% |
Indpendent |
26% |
49% |
23% |
2% |
QUESTION: Congressman Connie Mack IV has been criticized for having a low attendance record and missing votes in Congress. Does Mack's attendance record make you more likely to vote for him, less likely to vote for him, or does it have no major effect on your vote?
More |
Less |
No Effect |
Not Sure |
|
I-4 Corridor |
4% |
50% |
44% | 2% |
REGION |
More | Less | No Effect |
Not Sure |
Central Florida |
5% |
47% |
46% |
2% |
Tampa Bay |
3% |
54% |
41% |
2% |
SEX |
More |
Less |
No Effect | Not Sure |
Men |
7% |
47% |
44% |
2% |
Women |
1% |
53% |
44% |
2% |
RACE |
More |
Less |
No Effect | Not Sure |
White |
5% |
49% |
44% |
2% |
Black |
- |
59% |
40% |
1% |
Hispanic |
3% |
52% |
45% |
- |
PARTY |
More |
Less | No Effect | Not Sure |
Democrat |
2% |
72% |
25% |
1% |
Republican |
6% |
31% |
61% |
2% |
Indpendent |
5% |
45% |
45% |
5% |
QUESTION: How would you rate Senator Bill Nelson's job performance when it comes to protecting the Space program: Excellent, good, fair or poor?
Excellent |
Good | Fair | Poor |
Not Sure |
|
I-4 Corridor |
18% |
24% | 23% | 31% |
4% |
REGION |
Excellent | Good | Fair | Poor | Not Sure |
Central Florida |
14% |
18% | 26% | 40% |
2% |
Tampa Bay |
22% |
30% | 20% | 21% |
7% |
SEX |
Excellent |
Good | Fair | Poor |
Not Sure |
Men |
14% |
19% | 23% | 39% |
5% |
Women |
21% |
29% | 23% | 24% |
3% |
RACE |
Excellent |
Good | Fair | Poor |
Not Sure |
White |
16% |
20% | 26% | 35% |
3% |
Black |
245 |
53% | 10% | 6% |
7% |
Hispanic |
23% |
22% | 23% | 27% |
5% |
PARTY |
Excellent | Good | Fair | Poor | Not Sure |
Democrat |
34% |
32% | 21% | 9% |
4% |
Republican |
6% |
16% | 21% | 54% |
3% |
Indpendent |
11% |
23% | 31% | 29% |
6% |
QUESTION: How would you rate Senator Bill Nelson's job performance when it comes to protecting Florida's military bases and industries: Excellent, good, fair or poor?
Excellent |
Good |
Fair |
Poor |
Not Sure |
|
I-4 Corridor |
21% | 27% | 22% | 21% | 9% |
REGION |
Excellent | Good | Fair | Poor | Not Sure |
Central Florida |
18% | 23% | 27% | 25% | 7% |
Tampa Bay |
24% | 31% | 17% | 17% | 11% |
SEX |
Excellent |
Good | Fair | Poor |
Not Sure |
Men |
17% | 24% | 21% | 30% | 8% |
Women |
25% | 30% | 22% | 13% | 10% |
RACE |
Excellent |
Good | Fair | Poor |
Not Sure |
White |
19% | 23% | 25% | 24% | 9% |
Black |
27% | 50% | 13% | 2% | 8% |
Hispanic |
27% | 32% | 12% | 17% | 12% |
PARTY |
Excellent | Good | Fair | Poor | Not Sure |
Democrat |
385 | 31% | 16% | 4% | 11% |
Republican |
5% | 22% | 29% | 38% | 6% |
Indpendent |
18% | 31% | 15% | 24% | 12% |
The telephone survey of 625 registered Florida voters in the I-4 corridor -- all likely to vote in the November election -- was conducted Oct. 22–24 for the Tampa Bay Times, Bay News 9 and News 13.
The poll, which included respondents using land-lines and cell phones, was conducted by Mason-Dixon, a nonpartisan, Jacksonville-based company. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.