In the final stretch before the November general election, Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson's re-election could be in jeopardy.

In a News 13 Florida Decides Exclusive I-4 Corridor Poll, the incumbent senator is in a statistical dead heat with his competitor, Republican Congressman Connie Mack IV.

Nelson holds just a three point lead, 47 percent to 44 percent, among the 625 registered voters in the Tampa Bay and Central Florida area. With a 4 percent margin of error, the race is still anyone's game.

And, with Mitt Romney surging in the polls nationally and in Florida, Mack could end up riding the coattails of his party's presidential candidate all the way to a win.

Nelson said he's working hard to keep the office he's held for years.

“I not only represent those who do vote for me," Nelson said. "I also represent those who do not vote for me and those who do not vote at all. I am not taking anything for granted. Fortunately, we are ahead and I do not take that for granted. I am running as hard as my little legs will carry me all the way through election day.”

Also hurting Nelson in this part of the state could be his allegiance to President Barack Obama and some of his controversial moves this past year.

When voters were asked if Nelson's decision to vote in favor of Obama's economic stimulus plan and health care reform law make them more or less likely to vote for Nelson, 47 percent said they're less likely to vote for him, while only 28 percent are more likely to give Nelson their vote. About a quarter of voters, 23 percent, said Nelson's voting record has no effect on their decision.

Mack's campaign manager issued the following statement:

"We always expected the I-4 corridor would be competitive. Here you have yet another poll with Senator Nelson significantly under 50 percent -- a very bad position for a two-term incumbent. It's reasonable to expect that undecided voters will break for Connie (since he is the challenger) roughly 3:2. We expect to win the I-4 corridor by 1-2 points. That means we will win the state of Florida and Connie Mack will be our next U.S. Senator."

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Breaking down the numbers

Overall, Nelson seems to have slightly more support on the west side of the state, with 49 percent of Tampa Bay voters putting their support behind Nelson compared to 45 percent in Central Florida. Mack holds a one point lead in Central Florida.

For years, Nelson, a former astronaut, was closely aligned with the space program. But, when asked about Nelson's performance in protecting the space program, 31 percent of voters along the I-4 corridor gave him a poor rating and 23 percent said fair. Only 42 percent said good or excellent. In Central Florida specifically, 40 percent said he's done a poor job.

J. Brad Coker, from Mason-Dixon polling, sadi it doesn't help that the Space Coast is turning more Republican.

“They stuck with him as long as he took care of the space program now they are turning on him,” said Coker.

During a stop in Jacksonville on Friday, Nelson defended the hard work he put into supporting the space program.

“What a Republican Senator from Texas, K. Baily Hutchinson, and I passed the new roadmap for manned space exploration and in the process we saved thousands of jobs at the Kennedy Space Center. Those new rockets are now being launched from the Kennedy Space Center and the big new rocket that is going to take us to Mars, its spacecraft Orion, as we speak is being assembled in the O and the C building at the Kennedy Space Center,” Nelson said.

Voters are close on who they believe will support policies that will improve the economy and health care, but they are more divided when asked about who they think will look out for Florida's interests in Washington.

Forty-seven percent said the trust Nelson more to help the state compared to 40 percent who said Mack would do a better job.

Among the attack ads against Mack have been questions over his low attendance record and missing votes in Congress. But, luckily for him, that's not likely to have a major effect. When asked how that information influences voters, 44 percent said it has no effect while 50 percent said it makes them less likely to vote for him.

Mack's problem, said Coker, could be the lack of organization in his campaign. Coker said Mack has yet to take advantage of what some could consider a weakness for Nelson - being a lifelong politician.

"We have yet to hear the word career politician," said Coker. "He could have done to Nelson what Rubio did to Charlie Crist."

In the end, Coker said if Nelson is able to hold on to that slight lead through Nov. 6, "this will be about Mack losing it and not Nelson winning it."

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Poll results in detail

QUESTION: Do you recognize the name _______________?
(If yes) Do you have a favorable, unfavorable or neutral opinion of _______________?

  Recognize
Favorable
Recognize
Unfavorable
Recognize Neutral
Don't
Recognize
Bill Nelson
41%
35%
21%
3%
Connie Mack IV
31%
34%
31%
4%

QUESTION: If the 2012 general election for Florida's U.S. Senate seat were held today, which one of the following candidates would get your vote - Bill Nelson (D), Connie Mack IV (R), Chris Borgia (Independent), Bill Gaylor (Independent)?

  Bill Nelson
Connie Mack IV
Other Undecided
I-4 Corridor
47%
44%
2%
7%
REGION
Bill Nelson Connie Mack IV Other Undecided
Central Florida
45%
46%
2%
7%
Tampa Bay
49%
42%
2%
7%
SEX
Bill Nelson
Connie Mack IV
Other
Undecided
Men
41%
49%
2%
8%
Women
51%
40%
2%
7%
AGE
Bill Nelson Connie Mack IV Other Undecided
18-34
54%
37%
1%
8%
35-49
44%
46%
3%
7%
50-64
48%
42%
3%
7%
65+
47%
46%
1%
6%
RACE
Bill Nelson
Connie Mack IV
Other
Undecided
White
40%
51%
3%
6%
Black
93%
1%
-
6%
Hispanic
54%
38%
-
8%
PARTY
Bill Nelson Connie Mack IV Not Sure Undecided
Democrat
82%
9%
2%
7%
Republican
10%
82%
2%
6%
Indpendent
48%
40%
3%
9%

*Borgia 1%
*Gaylor 1%

QUESTION: In the Senate race, who do you feel is more likely to support policies that will improve the economy - Bill Nelson or Connie Mack?

  Bill Nelson
Connie Mack IV
Not Sure
I-4 Corridor
46%
42%
12%
REGION
Bill Nelson Connie Mack IV Not Sure
Central Florida
42%
45% 13%
Tampa Bay
50%
39%
11%
SEX
Bill Nelson
Connie Mack IV
Not Sure
Men
43%
46% 11%
Women
49%
39%
12%
RACE
Bill Nelson
Connie Mack IV
Not Sure
White
39%
49%
12%
Black
87%
2%
11%
Hispanic
57%
31%
12%
PARTY
Bill Nelson Connie Mack IV Not Sure
Democrat
74%
7%
19%
Republican
17%
77%
6%
Indpendent
44%
46%
10%

QUESTION: In the Senate race, who do you feel is more likely to support policies that will improve healthcare - Bill Nelson or Connie Mack?

  Bill Nelson
Connie Mack IV
Not Sure
I-4 Corridor
45%
43%
12%
REGION
Bill Nelson Connie Mack IV Not Sure
Central Florida
44%
44%
12%
Tampa Bay
46%
42%
12%
SEX
Bill Nelson
Connie Mack IV
Not Sure
Men
39%
49%
12%
Women
50%
38%
12%
RACE
Bill Nelson
Connie Mack IV
Not Sure
White
37%
51%
12%
Black
87%
2%
11%
Hispanic
57%
31%
12%
PARTY
Bill Nelson Connie Mack IV Not Sure
Democrat
79%
5%
16%
Republican
11%
81%
8%
Indpendent
45%
45%
10%

 

QUESTION: Who do you trust more to look out for Florida's interests in Washington - Bill Nelson or Connie Mack?

  Bill Nelson
Connie Mack IV
Not Sure
I-4 Corridor
47%
40%
13%
REGION
Bill Nelson Connie Mack IV Not Sure
Central Florida
47%
41%
12%
Tampa Bay
47%
39%
14%
SEX
Bill Nelson
Connie Mack IV
Not Sure
Men
44%
41%
15%
Women
50%
39%
11%
RACE
Bill Nelson
Connie Mack IV
Not Sure
White
41%
47%
12%
Black
83%
2%
15%
Hispanic
57%
28%
15%
PARTY
Bill Nelson Connie Mack IV Not Sure
Democrat
82%
4%
14%
Republican
11%
77%
12%
Indpendent
48%
40%
12%

 

QUESTION: Senator Bill Nelson has been criticized for voting in favor of President Barack Obama's policies, including his economic stimulus plan and healthcare reform law. Does Nelson's voting record make you more likely to vote for him, less likely to vote for him, or does it have no major effect on your vote?

  More
Less
No Effect
Not Sure
I-4 Corridor
28%
47%
23%
2%
REGION
More Less No Effect Not Sure
Central Florida
26%
51%
21%
2%
Tampa Bay
30%
43%
25%
2%
SEX
More
Less
No Effect Not Sure
Men
23%
56%
18%
3%
Women
33%
39%
27%
1%
RACE
More
Less
No Effect Not Sure
White
21%
56%
21%
2%
Black
59%
6%
34%
1%
Hispanic
47%
27%
23%
3%
PARTY
More Less No Effect Not Sure
Democrat
54%
15%
30%
1%
Republican
2%
79%
17%
2%
Indpendent
26%
49%
23%
2%

QUESTION: Congressman Connie Mack IV has been criticized for having a low attendance record and missing votes in Congress. Does Mack's attendance record make you more likely to vote for him, less likely to vote for him, or does it have no major effect on your vote?

  More
Less
No Effect
Not Sure
I-4 Corridor
4%
50%
44% 2%
REGION
More Less No Effect
Not Sure
Central Florida
5%
47%
46%
2%
Tampa Bay
3%
54%
41%
2%
SEX
More
Less
No Effect Not Sure
Men
7%
47%
44%
2%
Women
1%
53%
44%
2%
RACE
More
Less
No Effect Not Sure
White
5%
49%
44%
2%
Black
-
59%
40%
1%
Hispanic
3%
52%
45%
-
PARTY
More
Less No Effect Not Sure
Democrat
2%
72%
25%
1%
Republican
6%
31%
61%
2%
Indpendent
5%
45%
45%
5%

QUESTION: How would you rate Senator Bill Nelson's job performance when it comes to protecting the Space program: Excellent, good, fair or poor?

  Excellent
Good Fair Poor
Not Sure
I-4 Corridor
18%
24% 23% 31%
4%
REGION
Excellent Good Fair Poor Not Sure
Central Florida
14%
18% 26% 40%
2%
Tampa Bay
22%
30% 20% 21%
7%
SEX
Excellent
Good Fair Poor
Not Sure
Men
14%
19% 23% 39%
5%
Women
21%
29% 23% 24%
3%
RACE
Excellent
Good Fair Poor
Not Sure
White
16%
20% 26% 35%
3%
Black
245
53% 10% 6%
7%
Hispanic
23%
22% 23% 27%
5%
PARTY
Excellent Good Fair Poor Not Sure
Democrat
34%
32% 21% 9%
4%
Republican
6%
16% 21% 54%
3%
Indpendent
11%
23% 31% 29%
6%

QUESTION: How would you rate Senator Bill Nelson's job performance when it comes to protecting Florida's military bases and industries: Excellent, good, fair or poor?

  Excellent
Good
Fair
Poor
Not Sure
I-4 Corridor
21% 27% 22% 21% 9%
REGION
Excellent Good Fair Poor Not Sure
Central Florida
18% 23% 27% 25% 7%
Tampa Bay
24% 31% 17% 17% 11%
SEX
Excellent
Good Fair Poor
Not Sure
Men
17% 24% 21% 30% 8%
Women
25% 30% 22% 13% 10%
RACE
Excellent
Good Fair Poor
Not Sure
White
19% 23% 25% 24% 9%
Black
27% 50% 13% 2% 8%
Hispanic
27% 32% 12% 17% 12%
PARTY
Excellent Good Fair Poor Not Sure
Democrat
385 31% 16% 4% 11%
Republican
5% 22% 29% 38% 6%
Indpendent
18% 31% 15% 24% 12%

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The telephone survey of 625 registered Florida voters in the I-4 corridor -- all likely to vote in the November election -- was conducted Oct. 22–24 for the Tampa Bay Times, Bay News 9 and News 13.

The poll, which included respondents using land-lines and cell phones, was conducted by Mason-Dixon, a nonpartisan, Jacksonville-based company. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.