Exclusive I-4 Corridor Poll: Romney tops Obama by 6 points

Both President Barack Obama and Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney have targeted Central Florida and the Tampa Bay area as being the key to victory in Florida.

Now, a Florida Decides Exclusive I-4 Corridor Poll show more than half of voters along the crucial region favor sending Romney to the White House.

The latest results, released Saturday, show the former Massachusetts governor with a 6-point lead over Obama on the I-4 Corridor.

When asked which ticket they would vote for if the general election were held today, 51 percent chose Romney, and 45 percent picked President Obama. The remaining 4 percent said they were still undecided.

The telephone survey was conducted Oct. 22–24 among 625 registered Florida voters in the I-4 Corridor. The margin of error is plus-or-minus 4 percent.

• In Depth: Jump to view the poll numbers in detail ▼

Saturday's results are almost identical to a previous Florida Decides Statewide Poll from Oct. 11, which was conducted following the first presidential debate between Obama and Romney.

The only difference two weeks ago: One percent of voters chose a third-party ticket. No one in Saturday's poll chose a third-party candidate, though the question did include options for Libertarian Gary Johnson or "one of the other party tickets."

"Winning by five points in Florida is a landslide," said Brad Coker, of Mason-Dixon, the Jacksonville-based company that conducted the poll. The normal margin is just 2 to 3 percent, which is what makes Florida such a crucial swing state, with its 29 electoral votes -- tied for the third most in the country -- up for grabs.

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Breaking down the numbers

In Central Florida, Romney led the vote 52–44 percent over Obama. Four percent said they were undecided. That was up from 2 percent who said the same two weeks earlier.

Romney's lead was slightly smaller in the Tampa Bay area, where he topped Obama 50–46 percent. Again, 4 percent were undecided, up from 3 percent of Tampa Bay voters in the earlier October poll.

Coker added these poll results are fitting a larger pattern. The same trend is popping up in polls across the country.

But it doesn't take much to flip the state. In 2008, Obama won by 3 percent, and had just a 1 percent edge along the I-4 Corridor.

"This is the I-4 Corridor, the Florida battleground," said Coker. "This is the part of the state that usually shows what's going to happen. Obama is going to underperform in a lot of counties he performed well in before."

Obama did hold the favor of women. Fifty percent said they would re-elect the president, with 46 percent choosing Romney. Men, however, favored Romney, 56–40 percent. Four percent of both men and women were undecided.

The I-4 Corridor's youngest voters, in the 18–34 age bracket, also favored the president by 51 percent, with 42 percent siding with Romney. Seven percent of young voters were undecided, the largest amount of any age group.

Romney held a majority in every other age bracket -- ages 35–49, 50–64, and 65 and older.

Breaking down the results by race, the Hispanic vote remains the most split, though Obama had the majority, 56–37 percent, of the Hispanic vote along the I-4 Corridor. Romney actually held a 2-point lead among Hispanics in this month's previous statewide poll.

Among black voters in Central Florida and Tampa Bay, 97 percent backed Obama. White voters in the same region favored Romney, 60–36 percent.

Seven percent of Hispanics said they were still undecided in Saturday's poll. Only 3 percent of white voters and 1 percent of black voters said the same.

The largest group of undecided voters on the I-4 Corridor is among independents. Ten percent said they have not yet made up their mind, with only two weeks left until Election Day.

Romney held an 8-point lead among independent voters, 49–41 percent over Obama.

The Republican nominee also got 11 percent of Democrats' voters in the I-4 Corridor Poll. Only 5 percent of Republicans said they would vote for Obama.

• Poll numbers in detail ▼

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Little change in Obama's approval rating

More than half of voters along the I-4 Corridor said they disapprove of the job Barack Obama has done as president.

Of those polled, 54 percent said they disapproved of the president's job performance, as opposed to 44 percent who approved, and 2 percent who said they were not sure.

Those numbers are exactly the same as the Oct. 11 statewide poll, though the breakdown saw some significant changes.

Two weeks ago, 2 percent of voters in both Central Florida and Tampa Bay said they were not sure.

Now, 5 percent of Central Floridians aren't sure, with most of those who said the same before now disapproving.

In Tampa Bay, however, Obama's approval rating went up from 44 to 47 percent. The number of Bay area voters who disapproved also went down, from 54 to 47 percent. The "not sure" vote went up from 2 to 6 percent.

The biggest change of opinion was seen among independents. In that group, Obama's approval rating went up from 39 to 46 percent, and those who disapproved dropped 10 points, from 59 to 49 percent.

Most I-4 Corridor voters, 54 percent, also said they thought America was on the wrong track. Only 41 percent said the country was on the right track.

Again, that number was the same as the earlier statewide poll, but slightly more voters in both Central Florida and Tampa Bay said things were on the right track than two weeks ago.

Most voters in the latest poll also agreed they were not better off today than they were four years ago, when President Obama took office.

While most of Saturday's poll results were close or identical to the earlier, statewide poll, this question saw a 5 percent difference, greater than the 4 percent margin of error.

Of those polled in the latest survey, 55 percent said they were not better off, and 39 percent said they were. Six percent said they were not sure.

More than half of voters in Central Florida and Tampa Bay said they trusted Mitt Romney over President Obama to improve the economy and look out for the middle class. Half also said they trusted Romney's foreign policy more.

• Poll numbers in detail ▼

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I-4 Corridor agrees: Political ads annoying

A new question in the latest Florida Decides poll asked voters their opinion of the amount of attention Central Florida and Tampa Bay has been getting during the election season's home stretch.

And most agreed: They've had enough.

Seventy percent of voters along the I-4 Corridor said all of the attention the area has gotten was annoying. They said there were too many political ads on TV and campaign activity around the region, and they did not really need that much information to make a decision about who would get their vote in November.

On the other hand, 26 percent said the attention both candidates have given to the I-4 Corridor was a good thing, because it brings in money, attracts national coverage and made them feel like their vote was important.

The remaining four percent either said their answer was a combination of both, or they didn't know.

More men, 77 percent, were annoyed at political coverage than women, 64 percent. Republicans, 72 percent, were also more annoyed than Democrats, 69 percent.

But perhaps the most important number was among the independents, 71 percent of whom said they were annoyed. That could be why there has been little change in that group's opinion since the last poll just two weeks ago.

• Poll numbers in detail ▼

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An accurate Election Day preview?

So, with Romney up 6 points on the I-4 Corridor, is that a preview of what will happen on Nov. 6?

Mason-Dixon's Brad Coker thinks so, and that can already be seen in the way both candidates are campaigning, especially Mitt Romney.

"Things are breaking his way right now," Coker said of the GOP nominee. "You can tell by the way they are campaigning right now. Romney is positive, taking the high road. Obama is throwing everything at the campaign, including the sink."

Coker said the latest poll is more important than the statewide poll two weeks ago, which indicated a major shift in numbers favoring Romney. He said this poll shows that shift was not a fluke, but the beginning of a trend.

"I think it is locking in," he said. "I do not see Romney receding. I have yet to see a state poll in the past week were Obama has gone up and Romney has gone down. It has been the opposite."

But at the end of the day, the only poll that truly matters is the one on Nov. 6, the day Florida Decides.

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Poll numbers in detail

QUESTION: Do you recognize the name ________?
(If yes) Do you have a favorable, unfavorable or neutral opinion of ________?
* (Numbers in parentheses from Oct. 11, 2012 statewide poll)

QUESTION: If the 2012 general election for president and vice president were held today, which one of the following tickets would get your vote?

• The Democratic ticket of Barack Obama & Joe Biden
• The Republican ticket of Mitt Romney & Paul Ryan
• The Libertarian ticket of Gary Johnson & James Gray
• One of the other party tickets

* (Numbers in parentheses from Oct. 11, 2012 statewide poll)

QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of Barack Obama's job performance as president?
* (Numbers in parentheses from Oct. 11, 2012 statewide poll)

QUESTION: Would you say that things in the country are on the right track or would you say they are on the wrong track?
* (Numbers in parentheses from Oct. 11, 2012 statewide poll)

QUESTION: Are you better off today than you were four years ago?
* (Numbers in parentheses from Oct. 11, 2012 statewide poll)

QUESTION: Who do you trust more to improve the economy – Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
* (Numbers in parentheses from Oct. 11, 2012 statewide poll)

QUESTION: Who do you trust more on foreign policy – Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
* (Numbers in parentheses from Oct. 11, 2012 statewide poll)

QUESTION: Who do you trust more to look out for the middle class – Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
* (Numbers in parentheses from Oct. 11, 2012 statewide poll)

QUESTION: Both presidential candidates have targeted Central Florida and the Tampa Bay area as being the key to victory in Florida. Their campaigns have spent a considerable amount of time visiting here and millions of dollars on television advertising. Which one of the following best describes your view?

• All of the attention is a good thing because it brings in money, attracts national coverage to the region and makes me feel that my vote is important.
• All of the attention is annoying. There are too many political commercials on television and other political activity. I don't need that much information to make a decision about who I am going to vote for.
  
  

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The telephone survey of 625 registered Florida voters in the I-4 corridor -- all likely to vote in the November election -- was conducted Oct. 22–24 for the Tampa Bay Times, Bay News 9 and News 13.

The poll, which included respondents using land-lines and cell phones, was conducted by Mason-Dixon, a nonpartisan, Jacksonville-based company. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.